MLB Props Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Bets for Rich Hill & Chad Kuhl (Tuesday, Septembe 6)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Chad Kuhl
- Two starting pitchers tonight stand out with value on the player props market.
- Rich Hill takes the mound for Boston against the Rays, while the struggling Chad Kuhl has sneaky value for the Rockies against the Brewers.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the best player prop bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
Hop into a loaded Tuesday slate with my two favorite pitcher props, which I found using our internal Action Labs Projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Rich Hill Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Red Sox @ Rays|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Rich Hill is an old man. He’s 42-years-old, yet is on the verge of tossing 100 innings this season after tossing a whopping 158 innings last year. He just keeps going.
The lefty now relies on a big, sweeping lefty motion that produces a paltry 71-mph curveball. The pitch hasn’t been half bad, producing an xwOBA against under .300.
If you’re here to back Hill’s strikeout total — which is a real sentence I typed in September 2022 — you’re going to be looking at his slider. That pitch travels even slower than his curveball, at just 68 mph on average, but produces a whiff rate close to 30%.
Hill also used it to abuse the Rays’ lineup about 10 days ago, where he picked up 11 strikeouts over 95 pitches with a whopping 40% CSW rate.
The Rays are a strikeout-happy team in general. They allowed both Michael Wacha and Frankie Montas to eclipse their strikeout totals over the weekend, as both pitchers fanned seven.
Plus, why are we dragging Hill in the first place? He has punched out at least four batters in 12 of 20 starts this season, good for a 60% hit rate that implies -150 odds to the over. Both the Action Labs Player Props tool and FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Hill punching out five today.
I’m ready to back him against the Rays.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Chad Kuhl Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+102)
|Brewers @ Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
Chad Kuhl is one of the most slider-reliant pitchers in baseball. He also decided to develop a sinker in place of his four-seam to try and replicate a Logan Webb sinker-slider combo.
It hasn’t worked. Since Kuhl got Tommy John, his fastball hasn’t been the same. His velocity is down across the board and continues to drop.
Generally, hitters will just wait out his slider and pounce on his low-velo, low-play fastball. It’s why he’s allowed an avg. exit velocity over 90 mph this season and an xwOBA over .350.
But hitters “waiting it out” also implies that they guess wrong sometimes. Kuhl has still forced a 35% whiff rate on the pitch. Kuhl has 87 strikeouts over 112 innings this season, and 71 have come on the slider.
So, it hasn’t been pretty for Kuhl, but he’s got just enough stuff to cash strikeout totals. On the heels of that slider, Kuhl has struck out four or more in 14 of 22 starts this season, good for a 64% hit rate that implies -175 odds to the over.
Kuhl has also made four starts against the Brewers over the last two seasons and eclipsed this line in three of them. He’s struck out at seven of the Brewers’ hitters multiple times and has averaged a 26% CSW rate against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are vulnerable right now, too. They’ve struck out at the eighth-highest rate against RHPs over the last month (23.7%) and allowed four of the last five opposing pitchers to go over their strikeout totals.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Kuhl for 5.5 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.0. Either way, we’re betting his number at plus-money.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+102)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10