MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Angels, 2 Other Thursday Games


Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons and center fielder Mike Trout. Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Apr 18, 2019, 01:54 PM EDT
  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB Games on Thursday, headlined by Mariners-Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Royals-Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Rockies 8:40 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

It’s been one step forward, one step back for the wiseguys so far this week. After going 4-0 on Tuesday, sharps went just 1-4 yesterday. The volatility can drive a novice bettor insane. But pro bettors know it’s part of the process. It’s a long season. On to the next.

After analyzing Thursday’s short 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.

>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

6:35 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (9)

Average Joes see Homer Bailey taking the mound in Yankee Stadium and that’s all they need to know. Hammer the over.

Lock of the century, right?

This total opened at 9. Nearly 80% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has remained frozen at 9. In fact, the juice on the under has risen from 9 Under -105 to 9 Under -116. It’s even briefly dipped down to 8.5 throughout the day.

Reading between the lines, this indicates under liability. The books aren’t worried about public over bettors, they’re guarding themselves against wiseguys on the under.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the Under 9.

According to our Bet Labs database, when the under is between 8 and 10, it’s receiving less than 50% of bets and the under has cashed in two, three or four straight games (under streak), the under has won +200.28 units since 2005. In other words, bet against the public on an under streak.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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