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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Angels, 2 Other Thursday Games

Credit:

Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons and center fielder Mike Trout. Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB Games on Thursday, headlined by Mariners-Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Royals-Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Rockies 8:40 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

It’s been one step forward, one step back for the wiseguys so far this week. After going 4-0 on Tuesday, sharps went just 1-4 yesterday. The volatility can drive a novice bettor insane. But pro bettors know it’s part of the process. It’s a long season. On to the next.

After analyzing Thursday’s short 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

6:35 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (9)

Average Joes see Homer Bailey taking the mound in Yankee Stadium and that’s all they need to know. Hammer the over.

Lock of the century, right?

This total opened at 9. Nearly 80% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has remained frozen at 9. In fact, the juice on the under has risen from 9 Under -105 to 9 Under -116. It’s even briefly dipped down to 8.5 throughout the day.

Reading between the lines, this indicates under liability. The books aren’t worried about public over bettors, they’re guarding themselves against wiseguys on the under.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the Under 9.

According to our Bet Labs database, when the under is between 8 and 10, it’s receiving less than 50% of bets and the under has cashed in two, three or four straight games (under streak), the under has won +200.28 units since 2005. In other words, bet against the public on an under streak.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (11)

Coors Field is a nightmare for pitchers and a dream for hitters thanks to the high elevation and low air density. As a result, Average Joes love betting overs anytime the Rockies are at home.

But sharps are buying low on a rare contrarian Coors under tonight.

This total opened at 10.5, which would be considered sky-high at any other park but par for the course for Coors. Heavy public over betting (nearly 70%) pushed the total up to 11. That’s when wiseguys crushed the under at an artificially inflated price.

We noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under 11. It’s not being juiced up to 11 Under -120, which signals it could fall back down to 10.5.

One reason sharps love this under: The weather.

The wind is blowing in from straightaway center at 10-plus mph, making the under a match for one of our top Bet Labs PRO systems.

 

 

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

10:07 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Angels (moved from -114 to -120)

Recreational bettors take one look at each team’s won-loss record (Seattle 13-8 vs. Los Angeles 8-10) and say give me the better team getting plus money.

Not the sharps. Once again, they’re fading the trendy dog.

Mike Trout and Co. opened as short -114 home favorites. Despite the public loading up on the Mariners (67% of bets), the line has moved further toward Los Angeles (-114 to -120).

If it looks fishy, there’s a reason behind it.

We tracked two reverse line moves on the Angels, with sharps hitting the Halos at -113 and -120. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Seattle.

This spot has been historically profitable the wiseguys. Since 2005, home favorites getting less than 45% of bets that receive at least 5-cents of RLM have won 57.5% of the time, producing +67.75 units won.

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