MLB Weather: Low Over/Under at Wrigley Thanks to Windy Conditions

MLB Weather: Low Over/Under at Wrigley Thanks to Windy Conditions article feature image

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports.

  • Unlike last night, the wind will be blowing straight in at Wrigley Field for the Marlins-Cubs game, where the Weather Rating is a slate-low 16.
  • That game, as well as Braves-Dodgers and Mets-Padres, have slight chances of rain, though all 12 games on the day should be completed without a problem.

When there’s baseball at Wrigley Field, you can probably bet that weather will make an impact in the game. And when I say bet, I literally mean bet your money on it.

While some ballparks don’t offer too much variation in the weather department, Wrigley features some of both the best and worst conditions possible for hitting. Last night was great. Tonight … not so much.

Highest Weather Rating

  • Royals at Astros: 56

Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure. 

We have ourselves an open roof in Houston, which is a ballpark that tends to keep the roof closed more often than not. Unders have historically done pretty well there regardless of the roof’s status and wind direction, hitting at about a 53.5% rate both with it open and with it closed, per Bet Labs. The over/under has remained at 8 since opening with Jakob Junis taking on Gerrit Cole.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Marlins at Cubs: 16
  • Mariners at Yankees: 21
  • Red Sox at Orioles: 29

I feel like every game at Wrigley this season has had wind either blowing  in or out. Not much of the side-to-side winds, but maybe I’m exaggerating.

The under has gone 5-3 in games with wind blowing straight in, in from right or in from left, while the over has gone 2-2 with winds blowing straight out, out to right or out to left. Historically, both of those trends have hit at over a 55% rate at Wrigley. If there’s one park on which you want to blindly play totals because of wind, it’s this one.

Last night serves as a great comparison to show how much of an impact the wind makes on over/unders at Wrigley specifically. Yesterday’s Cards-Cubs total closed at 10 with Adam Wainwright taking on Jose Quintana and a 7-mph breeze blowing straight out. Tonight, Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins takes on Cole Hamels with a 10-mph breeze blowing in and the over/under is just 7.

Get used to this, too, as tomorrow looks like it will feature very similar conditions. Generally speaking, games at Wrigley with winds blowing in have closed at either 7 or 7.5 this year, while games with winds blowing out have been between 9.5 and 11.

Two AL East parks have decent weather on paper, but underlying atmospheric conditions are keeping the ratings at Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards below 30. Seeing as how they’re solid hitters parks anyway, the over/unders are at 9 and 9.5, respectively.

Inclement Weather

Looking very good in terms of getting all 12 games in tonight. The following games have a slight chance of showers, with Chicago likely having the best shot at a delay:

  • Marlins at Cubs
  • Braves at Dodgers
  • Mets at Padres