The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on June 27, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets head to Pittsburgh to begin a three-game weekend set with the Pirates. The Mets enter as -165 road favorites with an 8.5-run total.
Read our Mets vs Pirates prediction and MLB pick below.
My Mets vs Pirates Prediction
- Mets vs Pirates Picks: Mets -1.5 (+105, BetMGM | play to -130)
My Mets vs Pirates best bet is on New York's run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Pirates Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |
Mets vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | Mitch Keller (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 1-10 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 2.96 / 3.96 | ERA / xERA | 4.02 / 3.91 |
| 3.37 / 3.52 | FIP / xFIP | 3.24 / 3.91 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 2.5 | K-BB% | 3.0 |
| 56.9% | GB% | 45.5% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Paul’s Mets vs Pirates Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: All Grounders, No Glove
There isn’t a pitcher that’s been affected more by pitching on a dreadful team than Pirates starter Mitch Keller.
If you looked at his 1-10 record, you’d probably assume he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball. All it takes is one glance deeper to see what Keller truly is, and that’s a reliable hurler.
Keller boasts a 4.02 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and 3.24 FIP. The issue in Keller's profile is a career-worst 6.99 K/9 rate, which puts the result in the hands of Pittsburgh’s terrible defense.
I'm more concerned about Keller's batted ball data being less impressive than his FIP and xERA. He ranks in the 17th percentile with a .273 xBA and 39th in average exit velocity. Keller can occasionally evade crooked pitches at times, thanks to his 46% groundball rate (67th percentile). That's if the Pirates' defense can turn the grounders into double plays.
Offensively, it doesn't get much worse than the Pirates, who rank 30th in MLB with a 73 wRC+ in June. Only the Pirates rank among the bottom three MLB lineups in home runs (14), isolated power (.106), and the bottom five in strikeout rate (25%) this month.
Facing a southpaw doesn't favor the Pirates, either. They rank 29th in MLB with a 67 wRC+, only better than the Rockies versus left-handed pitching. Joey Bart (168) and Andrew McCutchen (133) are the only hitters on the Pirates roster with a wRC+ better than 100.
The pressing issue is that O'Neil Cruz is unplayable against lefties. He's hitting a dreadful .115 with one homer and a 28 wRC+. Cruz, somehow, isn't even the worst Pittsburgh hitter against lefties, as Ke'Bryan Hayes and Tommy Pham combine for a 20 wRC+.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Big Lefty, Bigger Problem
The Pirates have the undesirable task of facing David Peterson, who's been one of the top lefties in the National League.
Peterson is coming off his worst outing in his breakout 2025 campaign, allowing five earned runs over just four innings to the Phillies. Before that outing, Peterson hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in any start this year.
The towering 6-foot-6 left-hander has a 2.98 ERA with a 3.96 xERA and 3.37 FIP. It's not a massive surprise that Peterson has higher expected numbers than his regular ERA. But such is life for groundball artists, and Peterson ranks in the 99th percentile in groundball rate. He's also walking a career-best 3.08 batters per nine. While it's not an elite figure, Peterson's ability to limit the walk rate has resulted in him pitching deeper into games.
The Mets have torn the cover off the ball in June, ranking fifth with a 113 wRC+ behind a league-leading 43 home runs and a .201 ISO.
For the 700-million-dollar man, Juan Soto, it was only a matter of time until his unlucky start in Queens turned around. In June, Soto leads the Mets with a 236 wRC+ and 10 home runs, well on his way to locking down NL Player of the Month.
June hasn't treated Francisco Lindor as favorably, but Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo each have a wRC+ better than 150.
The Mets' order is elite at the top. It doesn't get much better than Lindor, Nimmo, Soto, and Alonso, and Keller will have his work cut out for him.
Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Everything points in the Mets' favor here.
I know June has been a month of despair in Queens, as the Mets' division lead has dissipated, but the offense is elite. There's no denying how good their offense is, and the Pirates have the absolute worst offense.
I'll gladly grab the Mets at -1.5 at +105, and I'll play it up to -130.
If you would rather go with -165 on the ML, that's understandable, but I think it's a convincing win for the Mets, so I have no issues taking the better odds on the run line.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105, BetMGM | play to -130)
Moneyline
No play here.
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Mets to win big here.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
Mets vs Pirates Betting Trends
