The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Blue Jays will start Jose Berrios, and the Red Sox will send Brayan Bello to the mound in the opener of this three-game series.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8.5 total runs for this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -115 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.51 / 4.59 | ERA /xERA | 3.31 / 4.69 |
| 4.27 / 4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 4.42 / 4.19 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 7.7 |
| 40.3 | GB% | 55.1 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 104 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Preview
The numbers for Jose Berrios and Brayan Bello suggest some incoming negative regression, which might deter some from the Under tonight.
Still, both lineups are performing worse against right-handed pitchers this season. Toronto ranks ninth among MLB lineups against southpaws with a 106 wRC+, but falls to 16th against right-handed pitching with a 102.
Boston drop-off is bigger, as the Red Sox rank 15th overall with 100 wRC+ and 25th (95) against righties.
Berrios has faced the Red Sox twice already in 2025 and has done great both times. He allowed only one run and four hits in seven complete innings on April 7, and then conceded just two runs on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings on May 1.
Meanwhile, Bello has not pitched against the Blue Jays yet this season, but has been performing very well this month. He has a 2.49 ERA in June with a 1.07 WHIP, his best month of the season by far.
Plus, we have a Bet Labs recommendation, using the Night time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias system, which supports the under for this game.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system in MLB targets evening games where public interest in the over is muted, recent home team scoring has run slightly hot, and subtle environmental signals align with lower-scoring outcomes.
Games start between 7:00 and 11:59 PM ET, and the market over percentage sits below 50, suggesting minimal public pressure on inflated totals.
The home team has hit the over in just 20 to 67% of its last five games, and their previous outing landed modestly over the total by only 1.5 to 9 runs, indicators of recent scoring that may overstate offensive strength.
Meanwhile, the wind direction — whether blowing in, across the field, or neutral — paired with moderate temperatures between 26 degrees and 74 degrees, introduces natural resistance to run scoring.
The home team is competitively priced on the moneyline and has a wide win rate window, providing no clear power imbalance that might inflate totals.
When layered together, these filters isolate a soft edge in a game environment where bettors overlook the under due to recency bias and lack of extreme public conviction.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
