The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, June 27, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH and MLB.TV.
The Braves enter as -150 favorites on the moneyline, while the Phillies are +125 to pull off the upset. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 9.5.
Find my Phillies vs Braves prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies vs. Braves Pick: Braves ML -150 or Better
My Braves vs. Phillies best bet is on Atlanta to win this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +125 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -150 |
Phillies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Mick Abel (PHI) | Stat | Bryce Elder (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-4 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.47/5.59 | ERA /xERA | 4.77/5.01 |
| 6.07/4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 4.62/3.65 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 14.6 | K-BB% | 12.5 |
| 31.5 | GB% | 52.7 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 101 | Location+ | 106 |
Phillies vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Struggling at the Plate
After surging to the top of the NL East, the Phillies' lead in their division was short-lived after getting swept by the Astros. Now, they enter this series a game behind the Mets.
The Phillies struggled mightily at the plate in Houston, scoring just one run in the three-game set.
While Philadelphia has remained afloat without Bryce Harper in the lineup, this last series was evidence that it's missing him, particularly against right-handed pitching. The Phillies' wRC+ against righties has dropped to 103, and they rank 22nd in ISO.
Generating power tonight will be hard against Atlanta starter Bryce Elder. Elder's peripheral stats may not look too great with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, but he has an equalizer: the groundball.
Elder is an elite groundball artist with his groundball rate sitting in the 88th percentile. So, while he allows plenty of hard contact, over half of it comes on the ground, which suggests many more outs will be recorded, as his 3.68 xFIP indicates.
Behind Elder, the Braves' bullpen is one of the best in baseball and is well-rested to start this series. It's hard to project much offensive success for the Phils tonight.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Solid Matchup
On the flip side of this matchup, the Braves have won six of their last 10 and are fresh off a series split with the Mets. Tonight, they return home and are in an excellent spot offensively.
The Braves get to face rookie Philadelphia right-hander Mick Abel. Abel has flashed some upside in his first five career starts, but his overall lack of whiffs and volume of loud contact make him a candidate for sizable regression tonight.
Abel's xERA of 5.76 and FIP of 6.08 dwarf his season ERA of 3.47 and give a better picture of how fortunate he's been to work in and out of traffic. He has somehow stranded 100% of runners allowed in five starts, which is clearly unsustainable.
Atlanta's lineup is on the fringe of being elite, ranking 11th in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Strikeouts have limited the Braves at times, but they can put a charge in the ball when contact is made.
Behind Abel, the Phillies' bullpen is likely to be leaned on, as we haven't seen the rookie go past five innings. Every arm but Orion Kerkering should be available, but there are plenty of question marks in the Phillies' pen, with Tanner Banks and Matt Strahm being the only trustworthy arms.
Phillies vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
The Braves have a significant advantage at the dish tonight in terms of their matchup, and they have a much stronger bullpen to hold any lead they grab in the first five innings.
We've seen them receive early market support, as they opened up around 10 cents cheaper than their current price, but the market movement supports the numbers and makes them the team to back tonight.
Pick: Braves ML -150 or Better
Moneyline
Take the Braves on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Along with the moneyline, the Braves run line is certainly worth a look.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total in this game.
