Phillies vs. Giants Odds, Preview, Prediction: Can Philadelphia Get to San Francisco’s Bullpen Early? (Saturday, June 19)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Realmuto.
- San Francisco hosts Philadelphia on Saturday afternoon for the second game of their three-game series.
- Both starters, Aaron Nola and Alex Wood, are fairly close in skill, so the bullpen may decide the game.
- D.J. James breaks down, below, which team he believes will have a more successful day once the starting pitcher exits the game.
Phillies vs. Giants Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.|
In one of the more entertaining pitching duels of the Saturday matinee, Alex Wood faces Aaron Nola. These pitchers are seemingly neck-and-neck when it comes to both peripherals and traditional stats, so this would make sense why the opening lines are about even on both side.
However, is there an edge in the rest of the game? Does one starter have a durability edge over the other, or is one lineup far better split-wise when it comes to batting against a righty or lefty?
Has Aaron Nola Regained His Form For Phillies?
The Phillies are an above-average hitting squad when it comes to mashing righties. Andrew McCutchen leads the way with a 160 wRC+. The bulk of their order (Rhys Hoskins, Brad Miller, Odúbel Herrera, and Bryce Harper) is also far above average when matching up with a southpaw.
Missing Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura still hinders this lineup in some capacity, but Cutch, Hoskins and Miller have provided the majority of the power numbers against lefties thus far this season. Pair that with a struggling Alex Wood, and they should be in pretty solid shape on Saturday.
Aaron Nola has had a couple of spotty starts this month but seemed to have leveled off his last time out there, where he held the Yankees to four baserunners in 7 2/3 innings.
Guys like Harper, J.T. Realmuto, McCutchen and Hoskins are players to watch out for against Wood. He ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate, and all four of these sluggers walk above a 10% clip against lefties.
Given this level of patience, it could throw a wrench in Wood’s contact percentages. Keep in mind, he also only struck out four batters in his first two starts in June, so some hitters have become wise to his ability to induce poor swings.
Giants May Have Success Against Right-Handed Nola
When it comes to the bullpen, Philly has the least valuable relievers (-0.6 fWAR). Their Win Probability Added also ranks 25th in MLB at -1.99. An encouraging number is their xFIP. They sport a 4.18 versus a 4.42 ERA, which shows they have been somewhat unlucky so far this season. Luckily, having Nola on the hill allows for less margin of error because he can usually go deep into games for the Phillies. Having an off-day on Thursday also frees up most of their better-performing arms, as well, in this series.
The San Francisco Giants, on the other hand, have an over-performing bullpen at the moment. Their xFIP is almost a full run over their ERA (4.25 vs. 3.37). They are stronger than the Phillies but regression is in the cards. Key arms like Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers should be available after they crushed the Diamondbacks 10-3 on Thursday evening.
The great equalizer in this matchup is how strong the Giants are against right-handed pitching. They have at least seven batters who are above average in this type of matchup, which is indicative of success, but they have to be ready to swing, since Nola ranks in the 90th percentile in walk percentage. They have plenty of patient bats in the lineup, but the free passes will be few and far between.
This is almost as even as a matchup can get, but given how Alex Wood has struggled so mightily in June, especially with getting players to chase, betting the Phillies team total is the right call.
The Giants bullpen will eventually regress, but if Wood cannot last long enough in this game to hand it right to Jake McGee and the back end of the relievers, the Phillies have a strong chance to go over 3.5 runs early. Take the juiced over 3.5 (-121) Phillies runs up to over 4 (-120). There is a strong chance they can get to this before the seventh inning.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Over 3.5 Runs (-121)