Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Preview, Predictions: Best Bets on the NL Central Leader (Wednesday, August 4)
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
Milwaukee holds the second biggest division lead in the league with an 8.0 game advantage in the NL Central. They are 11-5 since the All-Star break and playing great baseball right now.
Despite sitting last in the division, the Pirates are not just going to roll over and quit.
The Battlin’ Buccos had a thrilling comeback win last night against the Brewers. After being no-hit into the seventh inning, the Pirates fought back to won 8-5 in extra innings thanks to a game-saving robbed home run and game-winning RBI single by Gregory Polanco.
The Pirates best season last year Steven Brault (LHP) will make his season debut after a lat strain caused him to miss the entire season up to this point. In four rehab starts, Brault allowed seven hits and two runs in 12 2/3 innings for a 1.42 ERA.
Named the Steve Blass Award winner last year as Pittsburgh’s best pitcher, Brault had a 3.38 ERA and 1.195 WHIP. Brault doesn’t throw the hardest fastball, with an average at just 92.3 miles per hour last season.
Fun fact: Brault is a terrific singer and has occasionally sang that National Anthem at PNC Park prior to Pirates games. I am not sure how that factors into a handicap, but it is pretty cool nonetheless.
The Buccos have scored the fewest runs in the league this season and have hit the fewest home runs by a wide margin. They rank 29th in both wOBA and wRC+.
A bad offense got even worse after the Pirates traded away All-Star second baseman and MLB hits leader, Adam Frazier. They still have All-Star Bryan Reynolds and future All-Star Ke’Bryan Hayes, but since moving Frazier, Pittsburgh has scored just 27 runs in eight games.
The biggest reason for Milwaukee’s success this season is the fact that Freddy Peraltla has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The right-hander currently with eighth best odds for the NL Cy Young Award. And he is the third best pitcher on the Brewers.
Only Lance Lynn has a better ERA in all of baseball than Peralta’s 2.17 ERA this season. He has an 8-3 record this season and has held opponents to two runs or less in 16 of his 19 starts. Peralta ranks second in the league with a 12.08 K/9 rate and has allowed the lowest opponent batting average at just .128.
In his last start, Peralta allowed just two hits, setting an MLB record with his 12th straight start in which he allowed two hits or fewer. He broke Nolan Ryan’s record of 11 set in 1991.
Milwaukee’s offense has really turned it on after a brutal start to the season. Since the All-Star break they rank sixth in wOBA and 10th in wRC+ and have scored the fourth most runs.
Peralta’s four-seam fastball has the second-best run value for any single pitch in baseball this year. Opponents are batting just .131 against it this year. The Pirates really struggle against fastballs, ranking 29th in the league with a -39.6 run value against fastballs.
In three starts against Pittsburgh already this season, Peralta has allowed just eight hits in 17 innings and tallied 19 strikeouts.
Milwaukee is 11-4 against the Pirates this year and has outscored them 96-44. In their 11 wins, the Brew Crew have won by at least 1.5 and covered the run line in all 11 of them.
While the -275 moneyline is not playable, I am comfortable laying -130 to back the Brewers to win by at least 1.5. If you are somebody who doesn’t like playing run lines, throw Milwaukee in a little two-team moneyline parlay with a team like the Yankees, White Sox, Giants or Dodgers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-130) | Or ML in two-team parlay