MLB Player Prop Odds & Bets: 2 Picks for Thursday, Including Freddie Freeman, Jose Urquidy
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddie Freeman
- Jose Urquidy against the Mariners and Freddie Freeman against the Rockies highlight today's player prop slate.
- Our analyst is fading the Astros starter, while buying the Dodgers slugger.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown and analysis of the top prop betting picks from today's MLB slate.
Thursday tends to be a slightly lighter slate, but there’s still value to be found across the 10 games being played.
I’ve found two player props that show value on Thursday’s slate — one pitcher and one hitter.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jose Urquidy under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
|Mariners @ Astros|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
Jose Urquidy has thrown at least 90 pitches in 13 starts this season. Despite his rather long leash, he’s managed to hit five strikeouts in just six of his 18 starts this season. That’s good for a 33% hit rate, which would imply -200 odds to the under.
Urquidy is a fine innings eater, but he’s not the usual elite starting pitcher you see coming out of the Astros’ clubhouse. His 3.93 ERA and 9-4 record look fine on paper, but he pairs that with a 4.79 xERA and a Baseball Savant page that looks like this:
Image credit: Baseball Savant
That doesn’t give me much confidence.
Urquidy has also made seven starts against the Mariners since the start of 2021 and has recorded more than four strikeouts just once. On April 16th, 2021, Urquidy managed seven strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings against the Mariners. Since then, Urquidy has managed just 16 strikeouts in 28 innings against his divisional rival. His CSW rate in those starts is a paltry 19%.
None of this is mentioning how red-hot the Mariners are, with Seattle having won 16 of its 20 games this month and eating up starting pitchers.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Urquidy for just 4.2 strikeouts on Thursday evening. This gives us plenty of value at plus-money, and I’d be surprised if he hits four strikeouts in this one.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Freddie Freeman 2+ Total Bases (-160)
|Dodgers @ Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
There’s been plenty of drama surrounding Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers this season, including multiple crying episodes and the firing of an agent. But despite the distractions, Freeman continues to smack the ball as well as anyone in the majors.
Freeman leads the Dodgers in bWAR (4.0) and has slashed .388/.435/.713 in July. He’s recorded at least one hit in 18 of his 21 games this month and is a big reason the Dodgers are 17-4 in the last 21 games.
In more recent history, Freeman has recorded at least two total bases in seven of his last 10 games, having piled up 28 bases in that 10-game stretch.
Freeman will take on Miami and Detroit veteran José Ureña. Given both players used to rock in the NL East, the two have a significant history.
Freeman is 14-for-34 lifetime against Ureña with four doubles, four home runs, a triple and four walks. Freeman has managed a whopping 97 mph avg. exit velocity and an 18-degree avg. launch angle in his batted balls against Ureña, and that’s added up to a .417 xBA and a 1.003 xSLG.
If you did the math, Freeman’s average in these ABs is just .412 and his SLG is just .941. Freddie has dominated Ureña and is due for more positive regression against him.
Ureña throws a sinker almost 60% of the time. He compliments it with a slider (18.1%) and a changeup (15.8%). But Freeman has posted a combined +24 Run Value against those three pitches this season. There is nowhere for Ureña to hide.
If Ureña gets pulled early and Freeman can’t capitalize, let’s not forget that Colorado ranks 27th this season in reliever xFIP (4.35). Freeman can still rake against this Rockies relief core, especially at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Pick: 2+ Total Bases (-160)
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