Tuesday MLB Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Twins vs. Indians Preview (Sept. 7)

After the Minnesota Twins took the series opener on Labor Day, the Cleveland Indians look to bounce back at home on Tuesday night.

The best news heading into Tuesday's contest for Cleveland is the return of Aaron Civale. He was one of the more consistent pitchers in Cleveland's rotation before injuries decimated it. Civale's first start since the end of June is against one of the nine worst road teams based on record in the Twins.

Will John Gant's month-long ability to limit walks continue for the Twins, Or are the books too bullish on the cellar dwellers in the American League Central?

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Twins Have Offense, Will Travel

Since being traded to the Twins, Gant has been pretty OK. His biggest flaw this season has been issuing too many walks and in 10 appearances with the Twins, he has allowed a free pass in four of them. Four of the six total walks have come in two of his past three outings, outings that were opener/starter length.

Gant has also been hit around lately, allowing 13 runs in 15 1/3 innings over his past five appearances.

It is good to see command coming from the righty, but his 3.98 ERA, 5.35 xERA and 5.04 xFIP are confirmation that Gant has flaws lurking each time he toes the rubber.

Minnesota is a top-10 road offense, just like we expected to be the case entering the season. The Twins have an away wRC+ over 100 for the season and a 110 wRC+ in road games against right-handed pitching. The offense has a top 10 hard-hit percentage in the same situation.

If Civale cannot find the zone or is off despite encouraging rehab starts, the Twins will be in business.

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is one of 14 teams with a home wRC+ over 100 against righties since the start of August, an improvement from their 97 wRC+ for the season. That includes boosts in average and slugging, as well as more consistency in their strikeout rate. The Tribe's season-long and month-long K rate is a difference of 0.1%.

Part of the recent upswing has come from the top of the order. Myles Straw and Amed Rosario have excelled atop the Cleveland lineup. The light-hitting Straw has as many home runs as an Indian as he did this season with the Astros (two) and six stolen bases since joining the club. Rosario is having his second-best season as a pro (2.3 WAR) and has been a consistent hitter, no matter the game location.

Civale has his work cut out for him with the Twins, but he should have leeway to pitch deep enough into the game based on his rehab work. Handing off the game to the Cleveland bullpen is more beneficial for them than the Twins. The Indians bullpen has 2.8 WAR (13th) compared to Minnesota's 0.7 (29th).

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Twins-Indians Pick

Minnesota is 8-5 against Cleveland this season with three wins in Cleveland. In those three wins, the run total went over Tuesday's Over/Under 9.5 runs each time. In the other three games in Cleveland, under 9.5 runs hit twice.

The concern is whether the Twins can get to Civale. With the season all but over I doubt Cleveland management would risk one of their best pitchers "just because." Civale is not an unstoppable force but he is prone to the odd bad inning. At -140, that takes the Cleveland moneyline off the table.

This total is a solid line with little juice attached, but I would prefer bettors push the O/U to 10 or more before betting.

The Twins ML is the best value and comes with a consistent road track record. It is also the option available I feel most comfortable betting.

Pick: Twins ML (+120, play to even odds)