Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Austin Vanderford Odds
| Brahimaj Odds | +240 |
| Vanderford Odds | -298 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-238/+180) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 320 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Austin Vanderford prediction for UFC 320on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Austin Vanderford was impressive in his short-notice UFC debut, defeating fellow UFC 320 competitor Nikolay Veretennikov via ground and pound in the second round. Now he makes the walk for the second time as a solid favorite against Ramiz Brahimaj, who is coming off back-to-back first-round finishes, both times as an underdog. Is the market underestimating Brahimaj again, or is the line justified this time?
Here's my Brahimaj vs. Vanderford pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Brahimaj | Vanderford | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 8:28 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/17/1992 | 3/21/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.14 | 4.08 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.81 | 2.68 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.99 | 1.77 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 25% |
| TD Def | 47% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 1.8 |
While Vanderford's UFC debut came in February of this year, he's been a somewhat well-known name in MMA for much longer than that. That's in part due to his marriage to former UFC fighter Paige VanZant, but also due to his seven-fight stint in Bellator, which saw him go 5-2 and challenge for their middleweight title in 2022. He also competed on the Contender Series way back in 2018, picking up a second-round submission but not a UFC contract.
Vanderford is a former NAIA champion wrestler before converting to MMA. Wrestling is still pretty clearly his A game, as he showed in the fight against Veretenikov. He took Veretennikov down in the first round and controlled him for nearly four minutes before finishing him on the canvas in the second round.
However, it's hard to judge whether that said more about Vanderford or Veretennikov. The latter has been taken down in three of four UFC/DWCS fights, with only Danny Barlow failing to ground him. He was taken down four times by Michael Morales, a striker who has landed just one takedown in six other UFC appearances. While Vanderford is certainly a high-level wrestler, Veretenikov may have been the ideal debut opponent to make his skills shine.
Brahimaj is a much tougher ask. While his takedown defense is lacking, he's an excellent grappler overall, winning the IBJJF world nogi championship (at blue belt) in 2019. Three of his four UFC wins have been submissions, and he's a dangerous fighter to take to the mat. That could turn this into a low-level version of Bo Nickal against Paul Craig, where the superior wrestler keeps the fight standing rather than engaging with the superior submission artist on the mat.
Which is somewhat of a scary proposition for both fighters. Both of Vanderford's career losses have come via knockout, and he's technically been out-struck on the feet in both his UFC/DWCS appearances. Brahimaj also holds a negative striking differential (overall, even with ground strikes factored in) in the UFC. To his credit, his only TKO loss came due to an exploded cauliflower ear (don't Google it), and he's never been knocked down in the UFC.
This gives me slightly more faith in his durability, particularly as he is further removed from the neck injury that kept him out of action for over two years. Brahimaj looked bad in his first fight back from the injury, suffering a decision loss to Themba Gorimbo before his current winning streak. That streak included a huge first-round knockout over Mickey Gall, showcasing some perhaps newfound power as he's looked bigger and stronger post-injury.
Brahimaj vs. Vanderford Pick, Prediction
One of my MMA gambling rules of thumb is to bet on a fighter in their second fight back from an injury. Fighters typically struggle in their return fight, whether due to ring rust or being at less than 100% strength when they return. That then provides a buy-low opportunity in their next appearance.
That's exactly what I did with Brahimaj in his second fight back, and then again in his third, with the market continuing to line him as an underdog.
Somehow, we're getting an even better price on him this time around, against a 35-year-old fighter with just one UFC win to his name. I'll take that at +240 odds any day, and was happy to hear Sean Zerillo agreed with me, as we discussed on our latest UFC Betting Podcast:
Billy's Pick: Brahimaj +240 (DraftKings)
