The UFC took Memorial Day weekend off, but they return this week with an 11-fight card at the Apex. Headlined by flyweight contenders Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield, the event airs at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN +
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 315 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 107 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Erin Blanchfield (-245) vs. Maycee Barber (+200)
By Fight Night standards we have a very solid main event on tap this weekend, with two grappling-focused top-five flyweights.
Erin Blanchfield suffered her first UFC loss last year in a number one contender match against future title challenger Manon Fiorot, then bounced back with a five-round unanimous decision win over former champion Rose Namajunas. All of her UFC bouts have had fairly clear results, with Blanchfield's wrestling and grappling winning her rounds clearly.
Barber is riding a six-fight win streak, with her last loss coming in 2021 to former (then future) champion Alexa Grasso. Her only other career defeat came in a fight where she tore her ACL early in the bout, but gutted through to finish the fight.
However, two of the wins on her streak were split decisions, with the Miranda Maverick fight being especially controversial. Every media member polled scored the fight for Maverick, and more than 90% of fans.
Plus, Barber has struggled with injuries, withdrawing from a few fights (including a proposed Blanchfield matchup in 2021), and hasn't competed in 14 months.
There's enough going on that I understand Blanchfield's favoritism, especially since she's the only one of the pair with five-round experience. Still, this line movement has arguably gone too far, with Blanchfield opening at -166 before being bet down significantly.
As it stands now I'm not making a bet, but if the line continues to widen I might jump in on the underdog. My price target is around +225.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Billy Ray Goff (-340) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+270)
Both Billy Ray Goff and Ramiz Brahimaj had their original opponents forced off this card due to Visa issues, with those opponents now booked to fight each other at a future event.
That means they both have full training camps leading into this fight, although most of their camps were built around a different opponent. I'm not sure if that's necessarily an edge for one fighter over the other, but it's worth noting.
Either way, I'm surprised to see Brahimaj as such a heavy underdog. He's 1-1 since returning from neck issues that sidelined him for more than two years, somewhat predictably losing his return fight before winning his next bout.
Goff is 1-1 in the UFC and has shown solid striking, but is relatively unproven in terms of grappling. Brahimaj is an accomplished grappler with 10 of his 11 pro wins via submission.
I'm not sure Brahimaj can get this one to the ground, but he has a clear edge if he can. Due to that, this line is a bit too wide, so I'm taking an early sprinkle on the underdog. BetRivers has a +275 line that's the best in the market.
I'm only making a small bet on Brahimaj's moneyline, as I'm interested in his submission prop when method of victory props become available.
Verdict: Ramiz Brahimaj Undervalued
Allan Nascimento (-155) vs. Jafel Filho (+130)
We have a fun men's flyweight matchup on the card as well, with a pair of exciting Brazilians.
Both Filho and Nascimento have been out of action for a bit, with Nascimento's 28-month layoff twice as long as the 14 months since we've last seen Filho. Filho has also competed in grappling since we last saw him fight, defeating top-five flyweight Amir Albazi in a grappling match in December of 2024.
Filho's only UFC loss came on a short-notice debut against undefeated Mohamed Mokaev. Filho had Mokaev in a fully locked kneebar that Mokaev somehow survived, before tapping the gassed Filho late in the third round. Since then he's picked up a pair of first-round submissions.
Nascimento is also 2-1 in the UFC, but he lost a split decision on the Contender Series.
At worst this fight should be a pick 'em due to their virtually identical resumes, at best Filho should be a moderate favorite due to Nascimento's layoff.
Either way, I'm happy to get +130 on Filho.
Verdict: Jafel Filho Undervalued
Rayanne dos Santos (-265) vs. Alice Ardelean (+220)
While there are some good fights on this card, they can't all be.
The opening bout is between two of the lowest-level competitors in the UFC, as both Rayanne dos Santos and Alice Ardelean are 0-2 in the promotion with a pair of uninspiring decision victories.
dos Santos also dropped a decision on the Contender Series, making her technically 0-3 under the UFC banner.
Between them, four of those five losses have been split decisions, which speaks to how close and hard to score their fights have typically been. That makes it hard to justify dos Santos as nearly a three-to-one favorite.
Especially considering this fight is -475 to go over 2.5 rounds, which means the judges will almost certainly be needed.
dos Santos is the better fighter but this will likely be a very close fight, so I'll take a flier on the heavy underdog at +225 via BetRivers.
Verdict: Ardelean Undervalued
