Rob Font vs. David Martinez Odds
| Font Odds | -115 |
| Martinez Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-330/+240) |
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| Noche UFC odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on Noche UFC with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rob Font vs. David Martinez prediction for Noche UFC on Saturday, September 13, with my betting preview and breakdown.
We've got a makeshift co-main event at Noche UFC, with both Rob Font and David Martinez losing their initial opponent(s) due to injury. Rob Font was booked to fight Mexican prospect Raul Rosas at the UFC's annual celebration of Mexican combat sports, but now draws a different one in David Martinez. It's a big step up in competition for Martinez, who is making just his second UFC walk against the #9-ranked Font. Will he be up for the challenge?
Here's my Font vs. Martinez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Font | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-8 | 12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:03 | 9:49 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/25/1987 | 8/3/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.49 | 5.40 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.67 | 2.70 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.79 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 0% |
| TD Def | 42% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
While both men have had opponents reshuffled on this card, the stylistic difference is much more drastic for Font. His original opponent, Rosas, is as one-dimensional a grappler as there is in the UFC, while Martinez is a dangerous striker with 10 KOs in his 12 professional wins.
Martinez moves extremely well, circling the cage in order to create angles on his opponents while darting in and out of range. He typically starts fights by firing leg kicks from the outside, both to wear down his opponents and potentially induce them to drop their hands.
From there, he'll dart in with a big punch or kick to the head, mixing in spinning attacks as well. I used the singular form of "punch" and "kick" there because Martinez typically looks to land single heavy shots, rather than throwing extended combos. The benefit to that approach is that he's able to put everything into his strikes, while the drawback is that he doesn't provide the best optics to judges if he's not landing those big shots.
On the plus side, he's one of the better defensive fighters we've seen come to the UFC in a while. Where most fighters rely primarily on their movement to stay out of range or more traditional boxing-style blocks, Martinez utilizes both well. Most opponents have a hard time keeping him in striking range for extended periods, but even if they're able to, his high guard makes it difficult for anything meaningful to land.
Of course, he hasn't fought anyone remotely near Font's level of striking ability, and Font also has a four-inch reach advantage. That can potentially neutralize the movement of Martinez, since Font won't need to chase him into range, but rather can land from the outside where Martinez can't reach him.
The 38-year-old Font is a veteran of 19 UFC fights, where he's fought every type of opponent imaginable, including three former champions (Jose Aldo, Cody Garbrandt, and Deiveson Figueiredo). While he's never quite broken through to contender status, he's been a top-tenor so bantamweight for the better part of a decade at this point.
Most of Font's opponents have chosen to grapple against him — which sheds some light on why he was initially booked against Rosas — as those who've chosen to strike with him have typically regretted the decision. Font has never been knocked out as a pro, and the only fighters to drop him are noted strikers Jose Aldo and Marlin Vera, both in five-round fights.
Fon't recent two-fight winning streak has consisted of him outstriking opponents on the feet after they tire themselves out grappling early. On the feet, he's a slick boxer who applies steady forward pressure and mixes his punches between the body and the head well.
While neither his hands nor his feet are as quick as Martinez's, his combinations and straighter shots could allow his strikes to get home anyway. His forward pressure is a bit of a double-edged sword, though. It could allow him to smother Martinez's karate-style kicks, or he could find himself running right into counter strikes from the faster man.
Font vs. Martinez Pick, Prediction
Ultimately, I believe the X-factor in this fight will be the leg kicks of Martinez. Font stands in a fairly traditional boxing stance with a heavy front leg, which makes it hard for him to check leg kicks.
Martinez is fairly committed to the leg kick and should have the speed and footwork to circle away from the pressure of Font in order to get those leg kicks home.
Plus, the opponent switch is probably more detrimental to Font, who surely had a camp primarily focused on grappling defense in preparation for Rosas. Martinez brings essentially the same approach into every fight, and wasn't booked against any opponents with one standout ability like Font was.
The age differential might also be a factor. Font is now 38, an age when speed and reflexes tend to be slowed. That's a tough combination against the fast Martinez, who is 11 years younger.
I took Martinez at +130 in my Luck Ratings, but the market has moved with me. He is still available at +110 odds via BetMGM, and I'd play him down to even money.
Billy's Pick: David Martinez +110 (BetMGM)
