The UFC originally planned on holding their annual UFC Noche event in Mexico for the first time, but unfortunately the arena wasn't ready in time. Instead, we're in San Antonio, Texas for the yearly celebration of Mexican combat sports.
The 14-fight card is headlined by Jean Silva vs. Diego Lopes, with the enitre card airing on ESPN+ starting at 3:00 p.m.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Paris odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Noche UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Jean Silva (-258) vs. Diego Lopes (+210)
It's been a busy run for the "Fighting Nerds" with two of their core members occupying the main and co-main event spots last weekend at UFC Paris. It was an unsuccessful trip to France for the team, with both Caio Borralho and Carlos Prates losing their fights.
Jean Silva has an opportunity to turn that around as a heavy favorite against former title challenger Diego Lopes. Silva will likely earn his own championship opportunity with a win on Saturday, particularly if he's able to finish Lopes.
Silva has finished all five of his UFC fights, with the latest coming in the third round against Drew Dober. This fight is booked for five rounds, so it will be interesting to see how his gas tank holds up if he can't put Lopes away.
Lopes' last fight was for the title in April, and two of three judges awarded him the fourth round. While it wasn't an exceptionally competitive fight, he at least showed the ability to keep up the pace late into fights.
He also hasn't been finished since 2018, well before his UFC run. My initial read is that Lopes is somewhat undervalued here, but I believe the best opportunity to bet him will be live, so I'm holding off for now.
Verdict: Lopes Undervalued, Wait For Late/Live Bets
Rob Font (-148) vs. David Martinez (+124)
This is a reshuffled fight, after David Martinez was previously booked to fight Quang Le and Carlos Vera at different points, while Font was set to take on Raul Rosas. With Font in need of an opponent, the UFC found a UFC newcomer to take on Le and allow Martinez to move up to the co-main event spot.
There's an argument that Font has the tougher task, going from the grappling-heavy approach of Rosas to a pure striker in Martinez. Martinez is dealing with a similar dynamic, but not to the same extent is preparing for a fight against someone like Rosas.
However, the reason I'm interested in Martinez isn't stylistic. He opened as high as a +180 underdog, but has been bet down to +124 on DraftKings despite most Tapology predictions landing on Font. That's a strong signal that sharp money is on Martinez here.
There's a case to be made for waiting, as the public could push the line back a bit more. However, Martinez is still as high as +130 at Caesars, so I'm jumping in now in case it continues to move in the same direction.
Verdict: Martinez Undervalued
Dusko Todorovic (-300) vs. Jose Medina (+250)
I'm torn between two competing ideas on this fight. On the one hand, Dusko Todorovic shouldn't be a -300 favorite against anybody. On the other hand, Jose Medina has yet to win even a single round across three UFC/DWCS appearances.
The practicing veterinarian but on a gutsy performance in his last outing, absorbing 28 significant strikes in just over three minutes before his fight against Ateba Gautier was mercifully stopped. His best attribute, by far, is his toughness. That was his first KO/TKO loss, despite absorbing plenty of damage in other fights.
Todorovic is a step down in competition for him. The Serbian is 3-6 in the UFC, with the combined UFC record of the fighters he defeated standing at 3-14, with all of them cut from the organization. He hasn't won a fight in nearly three years, and three of his last five fights have been first-round knockout losses.
The line has shifted towards Todorovic anyway, and my guess is it continues to move that way. I'm not betting it now, but if Medina's line starts to approach +300, I'll hold my nose and take a sprinkle.
Verdict: Medina Undervalued — But Wait
Alice Pereira (-170) vs. Montserrat Rendon (+142)
Alice "Golden Girl" Pereira will be the youngest active UFC fighter when she makes the walk Saturday, still about three months shy of her 20th birthday. She's already 5-0 as a pro (with a sixth potential win flagged by Tapology for potential illegitimacy).
It's obvious the UFC is interested in promoting her, based on the fact that they signed her directly to the UFC rather than pushing her through the Contender Series. Plus, they gave her an extremely winnable debut matchup against Montserrat Rendon.
Rendon has a similar pro record of 6-1 but is nearly 17 years older than Pereira. All six of her pro wins have been decisions, with half of those going to splits — including her lone UFC win.
While Pereira is still unproven and very green, she has massive talent, youth, and athleticism edges over Rendon. Plus, this line has fallen as low as -150 at Caesars, so jump on it now while it's still this cheap.
Verdict: Pereira Undervalued
