Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips UFC 259 Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, March 6)

Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips UFC 259 Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, March 6) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Song Yadong (left) and Kyler Phillips.

  • Bantamweight prospect Song Yadong looks to remain unbeaten in the UFC against Kyler Phillips at UFC 259.
  • Yadong is coming off a majority draw and controversial win over Marlon Vera in his previous two fights, while Phillips registered a finish in his last outing.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down how he’s betting this enticing matchup.

Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips Odds

Song odds
Phillips odds
2.5 (-170 / +132)
UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

I have gone back and forth regarding picking a side on this fight, but thankfully the projections have let me off the hook. Kyler Phillips opened as a +165 underdog but has come down roughly 5% as of writing and I wouldn't consider a bet on the underdog unless his moneyline gets back to +145 or better.

Below I preview Phillips' matchup with Song Yadong and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Record16-4-1 (1 NC)8-1
Avg. Fight Time10:137:10
Weight (pounds)135.5 lbs.136 lbs.
Reach (inches)67"72"
Date of birth12/2/976/12/95
Sig Strikes Per Min4.326.28
SS Accuracy42%49%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.572.05
SS Defense56%66%
Take Down Avg0.732.79
TD Acc75%66%
TD Def61%71%
Submission Avg0.50.7

Phillips represents a step down in competition for Song, who is coming off of a controversial win over Marlon Vera (65% of fans scored for Vera) and a controversial draw against Cody Stamann (53% of fans scored the bout for Stamann and 46% scored it a draw).

He is a sound technical boxer, which creates good optics for the judges, regardless of whether he is actually landing more strikes, and Phillips has shown some defensive lapses on the feet.

However, Phillips has the grappling upside in this fight and offers a path to victory through his wrestling (2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, 66% accuracy) and top control.

Furthermore, while both men are good athletes, I'd give the cardio edge to Phillips and see him as the more likely man to win a third round, particularly due to his grinding style.

Song vs. Phillips Pick

If he can keep the striking numbers and optics relatively close on the feet with his spinning attacks while mixing in a few takedowns, that could be enough to put Phillips over the top with the judges, despite their past deference to Song.

Either way, I don't see a betting edge on either side of this fight. But while both men do have finishing upside, this is still a division that offers the lowest stoppage rate (41.3%) on the men's side.

I projected this bout to go to the judges 62% of the time and would bet the distance prop up to -145, at just about a 3% edge.

The Pick: Song/Phillips, Fight Goes the Distance (-130, 0.5u)

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