Oliveira vs. Brown Odds
The featured preliminary bout for UFC 261 will pit welterweights Alex Oliveira and Randy Brown against each other in a matchup of two fighters seeking to bounce back after losses in their most recent fights. Oliveira lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission in October and Brown lost by TKO to Vicente Luque in August.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Oliveira | Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-9-1 | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:50 | 10:28 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/21/88 | 7/8/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.87 | 3.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.18 | 2.80 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.41 | 1.00 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 46% |
| TD Def | 63% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Oliveira vs. Brown Pick
This is a difficult fight to handicap because you never quite know which version of "Cowboy Oliveira" is going to show up.
Brown has been making lots of improvements from one fight to the next – and has the tools and athleticism (4-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach advantage) to neutralize Oliveira.
If he tries to wrestle early and sap the Brazilian's cardio, which typically lasts for five to seven minutes, Brown will likely become a -800 favorite after Round 1.
In terms of pure striking metrics, Brown should have the edge in terms of volume (+0.8 strikes landed per minute), but Oliveira will be dangerous in the early minutes — it just seems like his win condition is limited to finishes against younger, more athletic fighters.
Brown should take over down the stretch, to the point where a second or a third-round finish is certainly possible. Still, I projected Brown's odds to win by decision at +165 — and you can bet that down to +205 at a five percent edge.
The Pick: Randy Brown wins by Decision (+235)
