Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown Odds, Picks, Predictions for UFC 261: Take Brown by Decision

Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown Odds, Picks, Predictions for UFC 261: Take Brown by Decision article feature image
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Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Alex Oliveira.

  • Alex Oliveira and Randy Brown meet in the UFC 261 undercard on Saturday, April 24.
  • Both fighters will look to bounce back after losses in their most recent fights -- Oliveira to Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission in October, and Brown by TKO to Vicente Luque in August.
  • Sean Zerillo details where there's value on a prop in this fight and breaks down the matchup below.

Oliveira vs. Brown Odds

Oliveira odds
+120
Brown odds
-150
Over/Under
2.5 (-132 / +104)
Venue
Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena, Fla.
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

The featured preliminary bout for UFC 261 will pit welterweights Alex Oliveira and Randy Brown against each other in a matchup of two fighters seeking to bounce back after losses in their most recent fights. Oliveira lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission in October and Brown lost by TKO to Vicente Luque in August.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

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Tale of the Tape

Oliveira Brown
Record 22-9-1 12-4
Avg. Fight Time 9:50 10:28
Height 5’11” 6’3″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 76″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/21/88 7/8/90
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.87 3.67
SS Accuracy 50% 47%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.18 2.80
SS Defense 48% 53%
Take Down Avg 2.41 1.00
TD Acc 37% 46%
TD Def 63% 71%
Submission Avg 0.6 0.6

Oliveira vs. Brown Pick

This is a difficult fight to handicap because you never quite know which version of “Cowboy Oliveira” is going to show up.

Brown has been making lots of improvements from one fight to the next – and has the tools and athleticism (4-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach advantage) to neutralize Oliveira.

If he tries to wrestle early and sap the Brazilian’s cardio, which typically lasts for five to seven minutes, Brown will likely become a -800 favorite after Round 1.

In terms of pure striking metrics, Brown should have the edge in terms of volume (+0.8 strikes landed per minute), but Oliveira will be dangerous in the early minutes — it just seems like his win condition is limited to finishes against younger, more athletic fighters.

Brown should take over down the stretch, to the point where a second or a third-round finish is certainly possible. Still, I projected Brown’s odds to win by decision at +165 — and you can bet that down to +205 at a five percent edge.

The Pick: Randy Brown wins by Decision (+235)

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