The UFC heads down to Australia for the first time in 2025 with a card headlined by two championship fights. The main event is a rematch between Sean Strickland and Dricus du Plessis for the middleweight belt, while the co-main is a strawweight tilt between Weili Zhang and Tatiana Suarez. The prelims start at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card at 10.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. Mostly, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 312 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 312 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Dricus du Plessis (-198) vs. Sean Strickland (+164)
The main event in Sydney features a rematch for the middleweight crown.
Dricus du Plessis won the belt via a split decision against Strickland in January of 2024, then defended it with a submission of Israel Adesanya later that year. While he was doing that, Strickland was in another split decision — though this time on the winning end against Paulo Costa.
Strickland's combination of high output and solid defense but limited power and grappling make him a split-decision machine. Since getting knocked out by his now-cornerman Alex Pereira, half of his six fights have gone to splits, while another was a close decision against Nassourdine Imavov.
I see that as fairly likely to repeat itself here, which theoretically gives Strickland some value at +164. However, the line has been moving consistently to DDP since this fight was booked.
I also prefer to play Strickland's point spread of +5.5, which would still pay out in the case of a close or split decision loss.
Because of those factors, I'm considering Strickland slightly undervalued — but not rushing to get any bets in.
Verdict: Strickland Undervalued
Tatiana Suarez (-118) vs. Weili Zhang (+102)
This is a bit of a weird line since Zhang has been one of the UFC's more dominant champs across her two title reigns, while Tatiana Suarez has fought just twice in the last five and a half years.
Suarez dealt with both a cancer diagnosis and some significant injuries in that time frame, with a knee injury occurring after her pair of bouts in 2023. I don't like betting on fighters in their return from injury, especially considering the 18-month layoff and booking against the #2 ranked woman in the UFC's pound-for-pound rankings.
While Zhang's occasionally spotty takedown defense worries me against an undefeated former wrestler like Suarez, I'm not passing on the champ at plus money. Like the main event, the line has moved towards the favorite, so there is no rush here either.
Keep an eye on the market this week, and also look out for my full fight breakdown, as some tape study might cause my opinion to shift.
Verdict: Weili Zhang Undervalued
Viacheslav Borshchev (-142) vs. Tom Nolan (+120)
Tom Nolan is an up-and-coming Australian prospect with a 2-1 UFC record after joining the promotion in 2023's Contender Series. Including the D.C. fight, two of his three wins have been knockouts, with the third a 30-27 decision.
Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borshchev is 3-3-1 for the promotion, including 1-1-1 over his last three. The lone win was a split decision in August, and the draw came in a fight where he was thoroughly dominated in the second round, nearly getting knocked out.
At worst, this is a coin-flip slugfest between two strikers; at best, the younger, more powerful prospect has a chance to dominate. For that reason, grab Nolan at +125 (ESPNBet or Caesars) before the line comes down.
Verdict: Tom Nolan Undervalued
Aleksandre Topuria (-425) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+330)
Aleksandre Topuria is the older brother of UFC featherweight champion Ilia and is making his debut at UFC 312.
Originally booked to fight Cody Haddon, he instead gets a different Australian prospect in Cody Thicknesse.
This betting line would be much closer if Topuria's last name were different. He has just six fights across a ten-year MMA career, with a solid 5-1 record. However, his best opponent was 3-1, and a debuting fighter knocked him out in his third fight.
Thicknesse is undefeated at 7-0, with four of those fights coming against opponents with winning records. Names aside, he'd be considered the better prospect.
This one isn't even up on all books, but I'm putting half a unit on the +330 at DraftKings, and potentially adding another half if the line opens better (or moves to a better number) elsewhere.
Verdict: Colby Thicknesse Undervalued