Read our UFC 316 predictions for the Saturday, June 7, event live from The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 316 Moneyline Projections
UFC 316 Prop Projections
UFC 316 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Marquel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
The UFC has had a hard time keeping fights together in recent weeks, with a number of fighters on UFC 316 having bouts rebooked and three fights on last week's card cancelled in the last day or two before the event.
Marquel Mederos technically checks both those boxes, as he was originally set to face Bolaj Oki last week in Las Vegas, but withdrew due to illness. Now he gets UFC newcomer Mark Coinski one week later in New Jersey.
Part of my handicap here is based on the illness and ensuing complications for Mederos. Based on when he withdrew he had already began cutting weight last week, then had to fly across the country and start the process over this weekend.
Plus, if he was ill to the point of being unable to eat or train just one week ago, it feels like a safe bet that he's not full strength now.
Beyond that, it's also a tough stylistic matchup. Mederos is a fun striker with excellent leg kicks, but his kicking-heavy attack leads to an issue with takedown defense. He's been taken down thrice in his two UFC appearances, and was controlled for more than 50% of the fight in his split decision win over Austin Lingo.
Choinski is the best wrestler Mederos has faced by a wide margin. The 8-0 prospect was a three-time D3 All-American wrestler, and trains with a high level team at Roufusport in Milwaukee. While his resume to date is based on beating lesser competition, he has a golden opportunity against Mederos.
The best part is we're also getting +168 odds at FanDuel. While that's down from +240 early in the week, it's still a great price. I just wish I had gotten there sooner.
The Pick: Mark Choinski +168 (FanDuel)
John Lanfranca: Josh Van vs. Bruno Silva
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Joshua Van is quickly becoming a household name as some believe a title opportunity is in his near future. No matter what you think of his standing in the flyweight division, you cannot ignore his ability to push a pace and put on exciting fights, hence why he is headlining the prelims.
His opponent, Bruno Silva, also found himself in the contender circle as recently as late 2024 before suffering a knockout to another stud flyweight in Manel Kape.
The last time a Bruno Silva fight hit the scorecards was October of 2020; I am expecting fireworks in this contest. Silva carries immense power and if there is one knock on Van’s prospects as an elite fighter, it is his inability to avoid getting hit. Van absorbs 5.2 significant strikes per minute, and has been stung by strikes and rocked several times.
Joshua Van, although a fighter of incredible output who wears down his opponents with attrition, has only two wins inside the distance in his UFC career thus far. There are a couple of reasons I believe he is about to add a third to his resume’. For starters, Silva absorbs more significant strikes per minute than he lands, which is a red flag when diving into the analytics.
Furthermore, Silva is now 35 years old and is coming off a knockout loss. Van is going to test his durability, and I don’t just mean in regards to his chin. Van averages an astounding 8.1 significant strikes per minute which is one of the best marks we have ever seen in the UFC.
This fight was originally scheduled to take place in March and had to be pushed back as Silva dealt with a myriad of injuries. First it was a hand injury that pushed the fight back, but as Silva continued to train, an arm injury slowed him down before a rib injury also became a detriment to his camp. At an advanced age, all signs are pointing to a fighter that may have sustained a little too much damage in his career to survive the fighting style of somebody like Joshua Van.
While I do not expect a submission by either man, it is not out of the question, so I will simply be playing this fight not to go the distance as my best bet of UFC316.
The Pick: Fight Does Not Go To Decision -102 (FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 p.m. ET
We're all excited about Patchy Mix's UFC debut, and on top of that, he's starring in one of my favorite fights on this card.
Patchy Mix arrives with a 20-1 record, famously built (mostly) in Bellator, where he was their final Bantamweight Champion. Mix has 13 submissions of his 20 victories, along with five decisions, and his lone loss came nearly five years ago against Juan Archuleta.
Against a tough challenge in Mario Bautista, he's awarded a great debut opponent, where he'll be able to showcase his grappling and overall skill set. And honestly, it feels like Bautista's best shot is asserting himself early.
Even then, Mix can sit back and quickly make this his fight on the ground, where he can transition to his guillotine, armbar and or rear naked choke attempts. In a standard fight, the floor for Mix should be a win on points, but there's a real chance he records his eighth sub in 12 fights. I like the double chance even with the juice.
The Pick: Patchy Mix by Submission or Decision Double Chance -160 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
This bout was rescheduled after Pyfer pulled out with an illness before their UFC Fight Night bout in Mexico City. Pyfer, who is a powerful, fast starter – and the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) figured to struggle with cardio while fighting at elevation in Mexico City. Still, they should look more formidable at sea level, in his home state of New Jersey.
While Pyfer carries significant power for the Middleweight division, Gastelum is one of the more durable fighters in the history of the sport, and he's shown excellent recoverability in the fights where he has been knocked down (against Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier).
I think Pyfer is likelier to submit Gastelum than knock him out; Pyfer has shown a sneaky offensive grappling game, submitting Abdul Razak Alhassan via arm triangle (Gastelum lost by the same method against Chris Weidman); and Gastelum tends to lose focus on the ground; his heel hook loss against Jack Hermansson was due to poor Fight IQ.
Still, while Pyfer should be dangerous early, Gastelum should be able to work his way back into the fight as Pyfer's explosiveness wanes in the second and third rounds, and Kelvin is likely a sharp live bet after five minutes.
I do project an edge on this fight to reach a decision, setting the line at 57% (-130 implied) compared to a division average of 45% (+122 implied). Still, Gastelum isn't a potent finisher (9 of his 14 UFC wins have come via decision), and both men have exceptional durability.
Bet the GTD prop at +105 to -120 – and wait for a live entry on Gastelum.
I also show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, setting Gastelum at +527 and Pyfer at +147 compared to listed odds of +650 and +170, respectively.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision +104 (FanDuel) | Kelvin Gastelum Live after Round 1
