Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction, Pick: Back the Underdog to Pull the Upset at Fight Island
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Dan Ige.
- The updated UFC Fight Night odds list Calvin Kattar (-305 odds) as a huge favorite against Dan Ige (+240 underdog) in Wednesday's Fight Island main event.
- Kattar is favored to win by KO/TKO (-115 odds), but Ige has been adept at stealing close wins in his recent fights. Can Ige avoid the knockout and keep his streak alive?
- Sean Zerillo analyzes tonight's matchup along with his betting pick to win below.
Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige Odds
|Kattar odds||-305 (BET NOW)|
|Ige odds||+240 (BET NOW)|
|Over/Under||2.5 Rounds (-200/+150)
|Time||11:55 p.m. ET|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
The exciting Yair Rodriguez vs. Zabit Magomedsharipov bout on Aug. 29 is likely for No. 1 contender status in the Featherweight division as the next man up for a title shot against current champion Alexander Volkanovski.
After consecutive losses, including a controversial decision last Saturday at UFC 251, former Featherweight champion Max Holloway might return to Lightweight. Regardless of the outcome of Wednesday’s main event, between No. 6 contender Calvin Kattar and No. 10 Dan Ige, the winner will likely be pitted against one of Holloway, the “Korean Zombie” Chan-sung Jung, Brian Ortega, or even Josh Emmett as a final test before competing for a UFC belt.
Both Kattar and Ige fought and won after the UFC returned to action in Jacksonville. Kattar knocked out Jeremy Stephens at UFC 249 on May 9 — and Ige recorded a split-decision win over Edson Barboza at the Overeem vs. Harris Fight Night the following weekend.
Both men took some damage in their respective bouts too — Kattar had his nose broken by an elbow, while Ige was dropped to the canvas by some big shots from Barboza.
Neither Kattar nor Ige has ever been knocked out their respective careers — 41 combined professional fights — yet the main event is listed at -200 (implied 66.7%) to finish inside the distance; likely because the pair only have one five-round match between them (a 2009 win for Kattar).
Is Ige now a championship-level fighter after continually defeating increasingly better competition, or will “The Boston Finisher” bully the smaller man with his boxing and end the Hawaiian’s six-fight winning streak?
Calvin Kattar Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|5/9/20, Jeremy Stephens||-250, -255||W|
|11/9/19, Zabit Magomedsharipov||+190, +223||L|
|6/8/19, Ricardo Lamas||-165, -208||W|
|10/27/18, Chris Fishgold||-245, -455||W|
|4/7/18, Renato Moicano||-180, -135||L|
Kattar opened as a -230 favorite (implied 69.7%) for this fight, quickly jumped to -280 (implied 73.7%), and has since moved to -335 (implied 77%) as of Tuesday night.
The betting market has a mixed history with Kattar — but it has tracked well with his UFC performances to date — fading him before losses to Renato Moicano and Zabit.
The market correctly sided with Kattar as a favorite against Ricardo Lamas and Chris Fishgold and took him down from a +185 underdog to +120 before a slight upset over Shane Burgos at UFC 220.
Dan Ige Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|5/16/20, Edson Barboza||+195, +240||W|
|2/8/20, Mirsad Bektic||+120, +100||W|
|6/22/19, Kevin Aguilar||-135, -125||W|
|3/16/19, Danny Henry||+135, +105||W|
|12/15/18, Jordan Griffin||-185, -185||W|
The betting market has an even more mixed history with Ige — backing him in four spots and fading him in four fights based upon opening and closing lines, since his 2017 appearance in Dana White’s contender series.
Ige moved from +140 to +105 before his UFC debut, his only loss inside of the octagon, but he is otherwise 3-0 as an underdog with the promotion. This fight against Kattar is the first time that the market has moved against Ige after opening at plus-money.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||10:14||11:19|
|Date of birth||3/26/88||8/6/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||5.29||4.12|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||6.46||3.13|
|Take Down Avg||0.42||2.15|
Kattar will be the bigger fighter in the octagon — he is four inches taller, began his career at Lightweight, and will also likely finish his career at 155 lbs.
Kattar packs superior power compared to Ige and fights at a slightly higher pace (+1.17 strikes lander per minute). Still, Ige has the better striking metrics (+0.99 vs. -1.77 differential, +7% accuracy, +3% defense) and grappling skills (2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, 34% accuracy) as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Don’t forget, you can now track your UFC 251 bets in the Action Network App!
Kattar’s Path to Victory
Kattar is one of the better boxers in the UFC, and especially in the Featherweight division — but he is a bit of a slow starter against pressure fighters because he is less effective on the back foot.
He lost the first round and got picked apart to a degree by Jeremy Stephens, getting out-landed 40-26 while missing on more than 60% of his strike attempts before his power started to back Stephens up in the second round:
Stephens missed weight before that fight – so he likely couldn’t maintain his first-round pace, but it’s worth noting that Kattar suffered a broken nose on an elbow while recording the decisive blow. I’m curious to see if a clean shot from Ige can damage that nose quickly on Wednesday.
More importantly, Kattar needs to figure out a way to control the pace of the fight and get Ige to back up — by using his elite jab, calf kicks, and front kicks to maintain his range.
Ige will look to continually close the distance to take the fight to the ground, or grind Kattar up against the fence in the clinch — but Kattar has shown sturdy takedown defense, recovery strength, and scrambling ability against some good grapplers including Zabit (1 for 4 on takedown attempts), Ricardo Lamas (0 for 1), Chris Fishgold (1 for 2), and Andre Fili (0 for 2).
When Kattar seizes opportunities to come forward, he becomes extremely dangerous with the full speed, and weight of his combinations laid bare, particularly after setting up his opponents with quick jabs throughout the night, leaving his hooks and crosses on a tee.
Ige’s Path to Victory
A five-round fight may work to Ige’s benefit — he is the younger man and has won the third round when he needed to in each of his past three fights — including two wins by split decision.
He is a strong pressure fighter who has continually improved against increasingly better competition. If he can survive Kattar’s power for five rounds, Ige has a strong chance at winning on the scorecards given his cardio and ability to change levels.
He has recorded at least one takedown in each of his seven UFC fights and has five career wins by submission, including three rear-naked chokes. Ige is particularly dominant from the back mount — and if he can grab hold of Kattar’s back in a scramble, he’s going to be challenging to shake off.
We haven’t seen Kattar’s jiu-jitsu tested much in the UFC, and Ige certainly has a path to victory via submission.
More likely, he needs to continually pressure Kattar for as long as he can and try to turn this fight into a grind. Stephens had success against Kattar early with low kicks, but Ige prefers to stand in the pocket and fire off power combinations to set up takedown attempts.
Standing in the pocket with a powerful boxer like Kattar could be his undoing, but you have to respect an underdog on a long winning streak who will be willing to force the issue.
Kattar vs. Ige Betting Pick
My crowdsourced projection makes Calvin Kattar a 78% favorite, implied odds of -355, for this fight — aligning with the recent movement in the betting market.
I mentioned in the introduction that the fight is -200 (implied 66.7%) to finish inside of the distance, and the crowd projection would set those fair odds at -233 (implied 70%), so there is minuscule betting value on the “No – Inside the Distance” or under 4.5 rounds.
But remember, neither man has been knocked out in their respective careers.
The crowd still sees Kattar by KO/TKO as the most likely outcome (57%), projecting that winning method prop at fair odds of -133, but there is little value in the market, where he is listed at -115 to win by knockout.
Ige by decision, projected at +633 (implied 13.6%) is the most likely underdog outcome — but there is no value either compared to listed odds at +600 — and his submission odds (+800) should be at least doubled (projected +2065).
On its face, there is very little obvious betting value on Wednesday night’s main event.
I had initially expected to pick Kattar, but the longer I break the fight down, the closer I feel that this bout is than both the odds and the crowd projection suggests.
If Ige can avoid the knockout while using his pressure to turn this fight into a grind, he has multiple paths to victory. And with the way that close decisions went on Saturday at UFC 251, I’m happy to take the big plus-money on the underdog who can mix it up more.
However, I have only placed UFC bets for half-units when my assessment goes against the value suggested by the crowd projection, so it’s just a small play for me.
Typically, I would pass on a fight like this — but given the love that I have seen for Kattar throughout the industry, the line for Ige still seems curiously low.
Per Sports Insights, 69% of tickets are on Kattar, but 66% of the cash is behind Ige.