Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen Odds
| de Ridder Odds | -198 |
| Allen Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105/-135) |
| Location | Rogers Arena, Vancouver Canada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vancouver odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vancouver with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen prediction for UFC Vancouveron Saturday, October 18, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada, for a 13-fight card, featuring a showdown in the middleweight division between No. 4 contender Reinier de Ridder and No. 9-ranked Brendan Allen.
The Dutchman, de Ridder ("RDR") – a former two-division champion at Middleweight and Light Heavyweight in one championship (at 205 and 225 pounds, respectively) has a 4-0 record in the UFC, including three finishes and a split decision win in a main event over former champion Robert Whittaker; the majority of media scoecards and fans (58%) thought RDR rightfully won the bout.
He was initially supposed to face the relentless Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez in this main event. Still, he will instead draw Brendan Allen – who lost to Fluffy for the second time in February – in a relatively short-notice spot.
Still, Allen is no easy out – he owns a 13-4 promotional record, including a 3-0 mark in five-round main events.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vancouver on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday.
Here's my de Ridder vs. Allen pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| de Ridder | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-2 | 25-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:47 | 10:38 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/7/1990 | 12/28/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.95 | 3.85 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.44 | 3.96 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.86 | 1.65 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 41% |
| TD Def | 66% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.2 |
Reinier de Ridder is the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach advantage) than Brendan Allen, and the majority of the middleweight division, having previously fought at 225 pounds in ONE Championship.
Still, despite cutting down to 185 pounds now, de Ridder hasn't shown any notable cardio issues at middleweight – and he won the fourth and fifth rounds on two of the three scorecards against Whittaker.
RDR doesn't maintain a particularly high striking pace. Still, he is heavy on the forward pressure – constantly stalking his opponents – and looking to land attritional damage with step-in knees to the body from the clinch.
Allen should be the faster athlete from the outset, and he is the more technical kickboxer of the pair; still, de Ridder carries more power and is the more durable fighter, and I'd expect his pressure and damage to wear on Allen, the longer the fight extends.
Allen is the better freestyle wrestler of the pair, but de Ridder's judo should permit him to dominate from the clinch and potentially land and consolidate takedowns, where he provides heavy top pressure.
Allen is a far better grappler on top than he is at fighting off his back – and while he is a fast starter who can land takedowns and get to dangerous positions against his opponents, he often loses top position while attempting to hunt for a submission, and often permits his opponent to take advantage of those mistakes.
On paper, de Ridder is both the more efficient striker – outlanding opponent by 0.8 strikes per minute, compared to a -0.6 differential for Allen – and he has controlled a higher percentage of clinch and grappling exchanges (76% vs. 55%) too.
Moreover, I viewed him as both the more powerful and durable athlete, with superior cardio, and that was independent of Allen taking the fight on five weeks' notice.
Allen's success should be frontloaded – while both have competed in five-round bouts, I'd expect RDR to take over the momentum of the bout in the second half of the fight. As a result, you should consider betting on de Ridder live, anytime after Round 1.
I'd also expect him to potentially finish Allen in the back half of this matchup, and will hunt for SGP angles or late round props to maximize our ROI.
de Ridder vs. Allen Pick, Prediction
I projected Reinier de Ridder as a near 67% favorite (-202 implied) favorite in this matchup, and as a result, I don't show value on either side of the moneyline at current odds.
I do project the fight to reach a decision around 37% of the time (+171 implied odds), which is a slight edge compared to the market (listed +200); and I show a correlated edge on Allen to win by decision (projected +449, listed +650).
However, I do give de Ridder more finish equity than the market anticipates, setting his KO/TKO line at +327 (listed +460) and his inside the distance line at +108 (listed +112).
As a result, you can play de Ridder to win by KO/TKO to +350, or take his inside the distance odds to around +110.
Moreover, I would also bet RDR to win in Round 3 (+1000), Round 4 (+1500), or Round 5 (+2000) and/or place a same-game parlay with de Ridder and Over 1.5 Rounds (+110) or 2.5 Rounds (+170), while waiting for a live entry on his moneyline.
Sean's Pick: SGP: Reinier de Ridder & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO (+460, 0.1u) at BetRivers | de Ridder wins in Round 3 (+1025, 0.05u) at Fanatics | de Ridder wins in Round 4 (+1300, 0.05u) at Fanatics | de Ridder wins in Round 5 (+1700, 0.05u) at BetRivers
