Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi Odds
| Vera Odds | +105 |
| Zahabi Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-375/+270) |
| Location | Rogers Arena, Vancouver Canada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vancouver odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vancouver with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi prediction for UFC Vancouveron Saturday, October 18, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Aiemann Zahabi has been a different fighter following a near two-year layoff from 2019 to 2021; winning six consecutive bouts has vaulted Zahabi into contender status. His toughest test to date will be a UFC Vancouver matchup with ultra-durable veteran Marlon Vera. In a fight lined by oddsmakers as close to a toss-up, I am going to make the case that Zahabi has the tools to outpoint his opponent in front of his home crowd in what should be another close decision.
Here's my Vera vs. Zahabi pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Holland | Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-10-1 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:29 | 11:47 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/1992 | 11/19/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.27 | 4.42 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.37 | 4.13 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 69% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.51 | 0.14 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 14% |
| TD Def | 72% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0 |
I will concede, Marlon “Chito” Vera possesses the finishing upside between the two men heading into this contest. Looking at the finish only market, Vera is listed at -310, meaning if the fight goes to decision, the wager would be a push. Zahabi has shown he is more susceptible to clean power shots, and Vera has displayed the ability to land such strikes with his full arsenal of weaponry.
The more stinging shots and iron chin may be on the side of Vera, but it is not difficult to envision Zahabi creating a game plan to take advantage of Vera’s deficiencies.
Vera absorbs 5.3 significant strikes per minute with a 50% defensive strike rate as opposed to Zahabi’s 69% and 4.1 strikes absorbed per minute. Vera has a technically sound defense, but his patience can be a detriment at times.
Zahabi will be the fighter constantly moving, using both head movement and footwork to cut angles and throw in combination. Given the history of Vera, I am quite confident Zahabi will devise a game plan around a fast start in which he wins the first frame at a very high clip. Vera has landed ten or more significant strikes only once in the first round of his last four octagon appearances.
Vera is known for ramping up his volume as the fight progresses, but don’t discount Zahabi’s ability to do the same. In Zahabi’s 2024 fight with Javid Basharat, he landed a total of 38 significant strikes through the first two rounds, before landing 37 significant strikes in the last five minutes.
In his win over Pedro Munhoz, a 58% accuracy rate in the third frame helped him hold onto victory for a unanimous decision and in his most recent win over Jose Aldo, Zahabi outstruck the legend 52-20 in the third round.
Vera vs. Zahabi Pick, Prediction
By the time Vera decides to turn up the pace, Zahabi will be ready and willing to adapt, as has really become his calling card in his recent run of success.
Zahabi is a momentum fighter, seemingly gaining confidence as he lands, which I expect him to do more often than Vera from the opening bell. I really like the combination of the potential momentum he can generate in the first round with the home crowd’s reaction to every strike that connects.
I simply trust the approach of Aiemann Zahabi more in this spot. If he can avoid the fight-changing power shot from Vera when he ultimately awakens as the bout progresses, it’s more likely than not the streaking Zahabi will get his hand raised on the scorecards for his fourth consecutive unanimous decision.
John's Pick:Aiemann Zahabi -125 (Caesars)
