Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott Odds
| Holland Odds | -102 |
| Malott Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+135/-175) |
| Location | Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vancouver odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vancouver with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott prediction for UFC Vancouveron Saturday, October 18, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC's great Canadian hope, Mike Malott, is now 5-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming in a fight he dominated until the final minute. He gets a step up against #15 welterweight Kevin Holland. If Malott can pass this test, he'll have a shot to fight his way up the rankings — but Holland isn't an easy out for anyone.
Here's my Holland vs. Malott pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Holland | Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-14 | 12-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:29 | 8:07 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/5/1992 | 11/7/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.30 | 4.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 2.96 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.82 | 2.08 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 56% |
| TD Def | 55% | 16% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.7 |
One clue as to how the UFC feels about "Proper" Mike Malott is the location of his fights. This is the fifth straight Canadian fight for the Ontario native, a rarity for up-and-coming fighters who are typically relegated to the Apex.
By and large, he's rewarded their faith. The lone blip on his UFC record came against Neil Magny, a fight that Malott was leading 20-18 on all three scorecards before being finished late by the veteran Magny.
The concerning thing about that loss is the stylistic similarities between Magny and Holland. Both stand 6'3" tall with 6'8" reach, and use their length well on the feet and ground. Magny is a more willing grappler, but Holland is a well-regarded BJJ black belt with five UFC submission victories. That could also be encouraging, though, considering how well Malott handled that challenge through the first 90% of that fight.
On the feet, he used kicks to cover the range discrepancy against the taller fighter, using push kicks to the body and lead leg, as well as traditional leg kicks. The push kicks to the thigh are a somewhat unorthodox technique and require an entirely different defensive response than a traditional roundhouse kick to the leg, while also stopping Magny's forward momentum, allowing Malott to retreat out of range.
Holland has been relatively disinterested in checking leg kicks through most of his career, so a similar strategy would likely be applicable here. That strategy also pays dividends as fights go on, allowing more opportunities for Malott to land the head. He doesn't overextend himself on the feet — even against lesser competition — but does an excellent job waiting for openings to appear.
Malott also has good enough wrestling to punish opponents who rush forward. As with his striking, it's not something he forces, but that could be especially useful against a fighter like Holland, who is easily sucked into brawls. Malott is a BJJ black belt, but his top game is specifically suited for MMA, looking to do damage from stable positions rather than attempt risky submissions.
My big concern with his style is his bottom game. He's been taken down by every opponent who attempted one, and I don't like his style from his back. In his DWCS fight, he (successfully) attempted a guillotine rather than defend a takedown, and against Magny looked for a single-leg X sweep into a foot lock that eventually led to his demise. Holland is skilled enough on the ground that finding a submission from the bottom is a long shot, so that's a relatively clear path to victory for Holland.
However, Holland has never been one to take the clear path. He famously let Stephen Thompson up after a takedown due to a gentleman's agreement not to grapple — despite having a broken hand that eventually rendered him unable to continue. He also only landed one takedown on Daniel Rodriguez and never really pressed the issue, even after being dropped twice.
Holland has always been more concerned with putting on a show than winning fights, which is why he's so often called upon by the UFC. The promotion's most active fighter over the last five or so years, this will be his fifth fight of 2025, and he's less than three months removed from the brawl with Rodriguez.
"Trailblazer" is happiest trading punches on the feet. He doesn't make especially good use of his length, preferring to wing wild hooks rather than stick jabs at range. The occasional middleweight has plenty of power, though, and is usually successful if he can draw his opponent into fighting on his terms. That style also relies on Holland eating some shots, which is somewhat concerning on a quick turnaround after being dropped twice by Rodriguez.
Holland vs. Malott Pick, Prediction
This is a fight that Kevin Holland absolutely has the skills to win. That is also a sentence that's been true in plenty of Holland's past losses.
Exchanging on the feet with the more disciplined Canadian probably isn't the best bet, especially with his potentially waning durability. Given my complete lack of faith that Holland will follow the most direct path to a win, and Malott's success for the bulk of a similar matchup, I'm happy to get Malott at a pick 'em price.
The best line is -110 at DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Mike Malott -110 (DraftKings)
