Read our UFC Vancouver predictions for the Saturday, October 18 event live from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC, Canada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 PM ET, with the main card officially starting at 7:00.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vancouver Moneyline Projections
UFC Vancouver Prop Projections
Kyle Prepolec vs. Drew Dober
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Canadian Kyle Prepolec earned a second shot at the UFC by accepting a short-notice fight against Benoit St. Denis in May, which was his return to the promotion after nearly six years back on the regional scene.
Throughout his career, Prepolec has had plenty of success against lesser competition, but continued to struggle in the big show. Still, there were some promising signs in his fight against Saint-Denis, and it's hard to hold that one against him considering the caliber of opponent and the extreme short-notice nature of the fight.
Prepolec held his own standing against the dangerous Frenchman, which has been a consistent theme throughout his career. He's never lost a fight due to strikes and has never been knocked down in the UFC. Not only is he fairly durable when hit, but he also defends strikes well, with his official stats swayed by the amount of damage he's absorbed on the ground.
That makes him a tough stylistic opponent for Drew Dober, who hasn't won a fight by anything other than knockout since 2018. He also hasn't won a fight at all in the past two years, with a three-fight losing streak consisting of two knockout losses. Those came against tougher competition than Prepolec, but a career spent trading punches in the pocket may have finally caught up to Dober.
Dober is still a deserving favorite here, and could even justify his -440 moneyline price if he decides to grapple. However, he's landed just one takedown in his last eight fights, and seems relatively unlikely to press what should be his biggest edge.
For that reason, I love the value on Prepolec at +350 odds via FanDuel. He has the power to stop this version of Dober, but could also out-point the less technical striker on the feet en route to a decision. If that's a bit too risky, his +3.5 point spread line is +165 at DraftKings, and would only need him to win one round and not get finished by Dober, a relatively solid bet considering Prepolec's longstanding durability.
The Pick: Kyle Propelec +340 (DraftKings)
Cody Gibson vs. Aoriqileng
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Despite a 3-6 promotional record, Cody Gibson has proven himself as a true mixed martial artist, both outlanding and outgrappling his competition across nine UFC bouts.
Gibson has outstruck his opponents by 0.6 strikes per minute at distance, and controlled 55% of grappling and clinch time against UFC competition; conversely, Aoriqileng has been outstruck (-1.4 differential per minute) and outgrappled (31% control rate) across his eight UFC fights (3-4, 1 NC).
Gibson is the bigger man (3" taller, 2" reach advantage) than Aoriqileng, has the better gas tank, and is likely the more durable fighter too; never knocked out in his professional career, or knocked down in the UFC. And although he can be submitted (five of his ten losses), he should have a clear wrestling and grappling advantage in this matchup.
I modeled Cody Gibson as a near 70% favorite this week (-227 implied odds) and I would bet his moneyline up to -210, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, I project value on the fight to reach a decision (projected -177, listed -155) alongside correlated value on Gibson to win by decision (projected +132, listed +155), and I'd likely include the latter on round robin tickets.
The Pick: Cody Gibson -176 (FanDuel)
