Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Ante Delija Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 110 (Saturday, November 1)

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija Odds

Check out the Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija prediction for UFC Vegas 110on Saturday, November 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

In a division desperate for contenders, the UFC is fast-tracking Ante Delija to the top. He'll be making just his second UFC appearance since signing from the PFL, both of which came against ranked opponents.

Less than two months ago, he knocked out Marcin Tybura in under half a round, and now he gets #6-ranked heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Tom Aspinall's primary training partner likely wouldn't challenge him for the UFC title, but the UFC will at least have options at the top if Delija can speed run his way through the rankings.

Here's my Cortes-Acosta vs. Delija pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

At 35, Ante Delija isn't exactly young, but he still has plenty of time by heavyweight standards.

The 2022 PFL tournament champion has been a pro fighter since 2011, amassing a 26-6 record while fighting for most of the top non-UFC promotions in the world. He's competed for M1 Global, Rizin, KSW, and the PFL at various points in his career.

That experience likely eased his transition into the UFC, since he was used to fighting on big stages against quality competition. We've seen fighters from other organizations struggle in their UFC debuts recently, but Delija had no such issues. Part of that is due to the nature of the weight class. The UFC heavyweight talent pool is so shallow that, outside of the top three or four UFC heavyweights, the rest of the roster isn't really a step up compared to Delija's previous opponents.

I would argue Waldo Cortes-Acosta falls into the "rest of the roster" group more so than the true contenders. The former minor league baseball pitcher has good size and is a plus athlete for the division, but isn't particularly skillful in any aspect of mixed martial arts. Which makes intuitive sense, considering fighters like Tybura were competing professionally while Cortes-Acosta was still trying to make it in the Reds' farm system.

"Salsa Boy" is the rare heavyweight volume puncher, landing 5.61 significant strikes per minute with a sub-50% accuracy rate. He has just two finishes in his seven UFC wins, which is a very low rate for a heavyweight. Those two wins came against Ryan Spann, a light heavyweight who stepped up to heavyweight in a last-ditch attempt to save his career, and Lukasz Brzeski, who is 1-6 in the UFC.

Which isn't to say he can't beat higher-level opponents — he just can't finish them. His upset win over Sergei Spivac served as proof of concept of his style, with WCA defending four of six takedown attempts, spending only about a minute on the ground for each of the two takedowns he gave up, and outstriking Spivac 110 to 48 on nearly double the attempts.

However, that's a dangerous game to play against fighters who will be looking for a finish. Cortes-Acosta effectively needs to be perfect for 15 minutes, while Delija can end the fight at any moment via a big strike or potentially following a takedown.

I'd rate Delija's grappling as somewhat better than Spivac's, who was the first true grappler Cortes-Acosta faced since he lost to Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Delija could certainly go that route and find success, particularly in the small cage at the UFC Apex center.

More importantly, he has extremely quick hands for a man his size, with plenty of power. It wouldn't shock me if Cortes-Acosta landed more volume on the feet, but had his winning round(s) erased by a big flurry or two from Delija doing more damage.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija Pick, Prediction

I made a rare full-unit early week bet on Delija on Monday, as I outlined in my Luck Ratings article.

Since then, the line has shifted from Delija being a slight underdog at -105 to him being clearly favored at -130 on DraftKings. While I'm personally more than happy to take the CLV, I'd still bet Delija at his current price.

There's also a case to be made for Delija inside the distance at +185 odds. Cortes-Acosta is durable, with both of his career losses coming via decision. Delija is the most dangerous finisher he'll have faced, though, and the small cage typically raises finishing rates.

Still, the odds aren't quite juicy enough for me to pivot from Delija's moneyline, even with it shifting his way this week. The best price remains at DraftKings.

Billy's Pick: Ante Delija -130 (DraftKings)

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