After a disappointing conclusion to UFC 321, we're back at the Apex for a relatively low-level Fight Night card. The main event between surging featherweights Steve Garcia and David Onama promises fireworks, though, and there's some solid betting opportunities elsewhere on the card.
The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 7:00, both airing on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 110 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 110 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Steve Garcia (-130) vs. David Onama (+110)
Steve Garcia (6) and David Onama (4) have collectively won ten straight bouts, which in a stacked featherweight division means each is still at least two wins away from challenging for a title. However, the loser of this one moves even further down the heap, making this a critical juncture for two fighters in their 30s who might not be able to climb this high again.
Garcia had picked up first or second round knockouts in the first five wins of his current streak before running into Calvin Kattar, whom he dropped en route to a unanimous 30-27 victory. Onama's winning streak includes three decisions, with two of them scored 29-28 in his favor, but all unanimously his way.
While that adds up to Garcia's wins being more impressive, he's a slight favorite, which accounts for that. Plus, neither man has a disputed victory of any kind, nor do they have prior five-round experience. The line has also held mostly firm since opening, so all signs point to this one being fairly valued, and not something we need to bet now.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-115) vs. Ante Delija (-105)
Tom Aspinall's primary training partner Ante Delija, is getting his second UFC fight in as many months after signing with the promotion this summer. The former PFL heavyweight tournament winner avenged a prior loss to Marcin Tybura in emphatic fashion, with a knockout in just over two minutes.
Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta had a five-fight winning streak snapped his last time out, losing a lackluster decision to Sergei Pavlovich in which the Russian played it safe, picking Salsa Boy apart from the outside.
My general thesis is that the difference between "UFC Level" and lesser organizations is much smaller at heavyweight, due to the overall lack of talent. Cortes-Acosta's win streak includes names like Lukasz Brezki and Robelis Despaigne, as well as a 44-year-old Andrei Arlovski — and Arlovski probably deserved the win. Those are probably worse fighters than Delija was facing in his PFL tournament run.
Delija brings much more finishing upside and grappling ability, and just needs one big moment while Salsa Boy needs to outpoint him for 15 minutes. At a slight underdog price that's a huge edge for Delija. The line has already dropped after Delija opened around +110, so grab it before it goes even further. The -105 at DraftKings is the best available.
Verdict: Delija Undervalued
Alice Ardelean (-380) vs. Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (+300)
This is one of the lowest-level UFC fights imaginable, with Ardelean ranked 36th of 40 active strawweights in Tapology's rankings, and Ruiz unranked due to inactivity. Ardelean is 1-2 in the UFC with a win over Rayanne dos Santos (who has never won a UFC fight), while Ruiz is 1-3 with a win over Cheyanne Vlismas, who retired with a 2-2 UFC record.
That makes Ruiz's lone win the more impressive one, though it was more than four years ago, while Ardelean's win came in May. I'm not sure exactly how to weigh those against each other, but I certainly wouldn't arrive at one fighter being a four-to-one favorite.
Plus, Ruiz has at least one relevant skill, as a seven-time national wrestling champion in Mexico. That's more than we can say about Ardelean, whose UFC career seems to be a promotional vehicle for her work as an influencer.
This is not a confident pick given how uninspiring both women are, but the price tag on Ruiz is too good to pass up. I'm taking half of a unit now, and will likely put another half on her point spread when the time comes.
The best line is +310 at BetMGM.
Verdict: Ruiz Undervalued
