NBA Finals Player Prop Bets & Picks: Jimmy Butler Can’t Maintain This Scoring Pace (Sunday, Oct. 11)

Credit:

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler

  • The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to close out the NBA Finals in Sunday night's matchup against the Miami Heat.
  • Which players have a chance to shine for their respective teams? Reed Wallach is eyeing on Anthony Davis and fading Jimmy Butler.
  • See how he's betting their props ahead of Game 6.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Win-Loss (Win Pct)
Bet Quality of 10 775-572 (57%)
Bet Quality of 9 942-776 (54%)
Bet Quality of 8 1432-1263 (52%)

Odds as of Sunday at 9 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Sunday’s player props come from Game 6 of the NBA Finals:

  • Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET

NBA Player Prop Bets

Los Angeles Lakers, Anthony Davis

The Prop: Over 26.5 Points (-105) (DraftKings)

This is purely a numbers play on Davis, whose points prop has drifted far too low now that LeBron James has taken over as the leading scorer for this Lakers club and Davis is nursing a heel injury.

The truth of the matter is both these guys are going to hover around 30 points in each game and it is imperative that the duo put up those numbers for the Lakers to win.

While Davis was hobbling down the stretch of Game 5, I’m going to bank on him showing up ready to play and putting together one last complete performance to wrap up this series.

At 26.5 points, this is simply too low as he went over this total in three of the five games already this series. As long as he stays out of foul trouble I think that AD is going to touch 30 points in this one. I’d play this to 27.5 at -105 if available as well.

Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler

The Prop: Under 26.5 Points (-108) (DraftKings)

I know what you’re thinking. How can you fade Jimmy after what he’s done this series? I get it. Butler has been unbelievable, yet this number has grown too much.

Not every situation is equal, but let’s go back to Game 4. Following Butler’s 40-point triple double Game 3, he showed signs of serious fatigue in the following matchup on one day of rest, which the Lakers won. Butler went for 22 in that one on 8-of-17 shooting.

Butler is not a score-first player and has put up these scoring barrages out of necessity. I don’t expect a follow up 40-piece from Butler in Game 6.

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Butler was exhausted by the end of Game 5, playing all but 48 seconds. Now, on one day of rest similar to Games 3 and 4, I predict that we will see him try to get other teammates going as the Lakers are sure to adjust to his scoring outbreak.

Ultimately, Butler may also need to pace himself for the closing minutes and not hunt for his shot early.

Outside of the Game 3 and 5 classics, Butler has stayed under this number in every game this series. I’d play this to -120.

Miami Heat, Duncan Robinson

The Prop: Over 3.5 Rebounds (+114) (FanDuel)

A lot of prop making is based on averages. Well, Duncan Robinson’s rebounding average for the Finals stands at three. If we dive in a little bit more, we see that more times than not, he has actually been able to get over this total, and we are now getting a discount on him to do it again.

Rebounds are random. Considering there is constant motion and shots careen off the rim at any different angle, trying to project rebounds is not an exact science, but we can use context clues to help us derive value in specific cases.

At +114, this Robinson low rebound total seems within range, and something I would make more of a coin flip given his play in the Finals. In three of the five games this series, he has grabbed four or more boards, which would cash this total. In the other two matchups he grabbed no rebounds and then a single one. Those two poor rebounding games from Robinson are deflating this number.

Robinson is going to be on the floor a ton, which helps create opportunities to be in on rebounds. He is fresh off a performance in which he hits seven 3-pointers and he’s been able to help space the floor to give Butler more room to operate on the wing with less Laker help. To quote Mr. Butler after the Game 5 win, “(Robinson’s) going to be the reason that we win the next one.”

Considering he is going to be on the floor a ton barring foul issues, coupled with the randomness of rebounds, this bet is showing value at anything above -105. Our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool gives this a 10/10 rating, making this a surefire play from me.

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