The Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2) and Indiana Pacers (2-1) will face off in Game 4 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Cavaliers are 5.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Cleveland is a -225 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +185 to pull off the upset.
Are the Cavs back? After winning the previous matchup of this series in fairly dominant fashion on the road with their full complement of players back, Cleveland looks like the title contender it appeared to be entering the round.
Can Indiana stem the tide and regain control of the series? Or will Cleveland's comeback rush continue unabated? Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 11.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 4
My Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 4 best bet is on Indiana moneyline, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+185)
Cavaliers vs Pacers Betting Odds for Sunday, May 11
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers spread: Cavaliers -5.5
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers over/under: 230.5 total points
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers moneyline: Cavaliers -225, Pacers +185
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers best bet:Pacers ML (+185)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Game 4 Preview
The Cavaliers are down 2-1 in the series, and if they slip against Indiana again in Game 4 tonight, their chances of making good one on one of the best seasons in franchise history become perilously slim. If they even the series, they’ll be heavy favorites to advance to the conference finals.
The consensus is that the Cavs are back and order is restored. I’m not so sure.
There were a number of things that the Pacers were still adjusting to in the previous matchup, a must-win for the Cavs, that Indiana can build upon moving forward. Offensive adjustments are the biggest thing for the Pacers, as it fuels their defense.
With Darius Garland back in the lineup, the Cavaliers were able to move Garland to Aaron Nesmith, putting Donovan Mitchell on Andrew Nembhard, and having Max Strus take the primary assignment on Tyrese Haliburton.
The Cavs switched Jarrett Allen onto Haliburton, who once again chose to defer instead of attacking the mismatch. This is a frustrating pattern with Haliburton, but also not one that he will consistently fall into.
The other problem was the Cavaliers’ zone. This is a bigger problem, as it’s something the Pacers struggled with in the regular season.
Myles Turner isn’t a terrific passing big, though decent. He’s not great at the easiest counter, flashing middle to force the zone to shrink and punishing it.
The Pacers are also not 3-point bombers though they’ve hit a lot of open looks in this series, so shooting over it to break it isn’t the answer. However, since the Cavs had to show that hand to avoid going down 0-3, Rick Carlisle and his staff have the ability to react in Game 4 appropriately.
Between what I expect to be a more aggressive Haliburton, a bounce-back game from Aaron Nesmith, the advantage Myles Turner continues to own, and likely some shot regression from the red-hot Cavs, I like the Pacers in Game 4 tonight.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 4 Betting Predictions
Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points (-108)
The Cavaliers are pretty fine with living with Turner’s points.
They’ve given him switches against smaller players underneath, left him on screening actions for 3-point attempts, and played off him in the corner.
He’s able to draw fouls consistently in those matchups and was 4-of-7 for 15 points, despite only playing 25 minutes due to foul trouble and the blowout.
Benedict Mathurin Over 12.5 Points (-110)
Rick Carlisle has figured out that he needs size on the floor in this matchup. The smaller guards play into what Cleveland has in their backcourt.
Mathurin has 23 and 19 points in the last two games since getting a bigger rotation spot. He’s comfortable against how Cleveland is defending him.
Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-115)
Nesmith has consistently had higher scoring outputs than the market expected over the course of the playoffs.
He fell short of this line last time out, but I expect a bounce-back performance in Game 4.
Evan Mobley Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Mobley is everywhere in this series. He’s able to rebound by playing near the rim in various coverages.
He’s passing on the short-roll when the Pacers try and send extra bodies at Donovan Mitchell. And he’s a scoring threat from everywhere.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Best Bets for Game 4
- Pacers Moneyline (+185)
- Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points (-108)
- Benedict Mathurin Over 12.5 Points (-110)
- Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-115)
- Evan Mobley Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
- 71% of bets and 77% of the money are on the Cavaliers to cover the spread
- 59% of bets and 67% of the money on the moneyline are on the Cavaliers to win outright
- 87% of bets and 86% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
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