NBA Finals Game 6 Expert Predictions: Betting Tips for Raptors vs. Warriors
Photo credit: Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry
- Raptors +2.5? Steph Curry to grab at least 6 rebounds? Bet on the Warriors to push to a Game 7?
- Our NBA experts give their favorite bets for tonight's NBA Finals Game 6 and beyond.
The Golden State Warriors will play in their final game ever at Oracle Arena and will need a victory to keep their season alive.
Are they worth a bet? Or will the Raptors close things out on the road after winning the first two games in Oakland this series?
Our NBA experts give their favorite bets for Game 6 and beyond.
NBA FINALS GAME 6 PREDICTIONS
Rob Perez: Raptors +2.5
It ends tonight. On March 21, weeks before the beginning of the playoffs, the prophecy was written.
Rolling Along Pedestrians Thought Othello Really Sank Indescribably Nobody Sequestered Ingestion Xrays Inside Niagra Fair Income Never Applied Lazy Sundays
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) March 21, 2019
Raptors In Six In Finals.
The end of the Warriors dynasty was going to be either poetic justice or destiny, and what’s so special about this series is that it may ultimately be both.
Without Kevin Durant in uniform, the Raptors are the better team. They have made the Warriors play their preferred style since the opening tip of Game 1, have drowned the “Strength in Numbers” free-flowing, pace-and-space offense with the longest defense in the league and have the best player in the series in the form of Kawhi Leonard.
The Warriors survived Game 5 behind an unforgettable performance from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. I mean, it was legitimately one of the gutsiest of all time, but let’s not forget that effort came for just one half. Durant and DeMarcus Cousins got the Warriors in front early, but, not taking anything away from The Splash Brothers’ greatness, they will be called upon to repeat their herculean effort for an entire game.
It undoubtedly helps that they are home and will be playing with the “final game at Oracle Arena ever” narrative jet fueling their adrenaline, but I just don’t know how they can do it for 48 straight minutes.
Curry and Thompson will have to play 42 at least to have a chance, and by the time they get to the fourth quarter — even the immortals will look human. Hell of a run, Golden State, but empires can’t reign unless they fall.
Chris Raybon: Steph Curry over 5.5 rebounds (-130)
This prop whiffed for me in Game 4, but if I’m wrong a second time, at least there’s a good chance the NBA season will be over and all will be forgotten by the time I restart this column next year.
In all seriousness, nothing much has changed in regard to this prop since Game 4 (except, you know, everything if you’re KD).
He is averaging 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes with Durant off the floor this season, per our NBA On/Off tool.
The Warriors will continue to need as much Curry as possible to stave off elimination, so he’s a good bet to play 40-plus minutes for the sixth straight time in the Finals, which would put his expectation closer to seven rebounds.
Our NBA Player Models have Curry projected for 7.06 rebounds in 42.6 minutes. earning this prop a perfect 10 rating in our props tool (59% win rate this season).
He has come away with at least six boards in six of his past nine games and seven of his past 13. I’d peg his odds somewhere in the middle and would play over 5.5 up to -150.
Bryan Mears: Raptors +2.5
I wrote a lot of my thoughts about this game in our Game 6 betting guide here, but it really comes down to this: The line of Warriors +4 (which is where I bet it when it first came out) indicates these teams are even on a neutral floor or the Warriors are slightly better.
And there’s not a whole lot of data from this series that the Dubs without Durant are the superior team.
The Raptors have the better point differential, and looking at it this way is quite compelling: Here’s who has won each quarter through five games…
Yes, that’s correct. The Dubs have won just 4-of-20 quarters in this series, on of which came with Durant. The Raptors won the fourth of Game 5, and if they had won it by just two more points, this series would be over.
Getting to a Game 6 with the home team favored feels like the series is neck-and-neck, a coin flip, but the data suggests it isn’t. The Raptors are better.
Further, I looked at home road teams up 3-2 in Game 6 have done historically against-the-spread (ATS), and the answer is incredibly well.
The Splash Bros are scary to bet against, especially at home, but all the data is screaming at me to take the Raps, which I did. I think there’s still value at +2.5 to +3.
Chris Raybon: Warriors in 7 (+280) | Raptors in 7 (+225)
While I agree that the value in Game 6 is — or at least was, at +4 — on the Raptors given Golden State’s injuries, I don’t feel confident in them closing it out on the road. The Raps should have already won this series, but their Game 5 loss was spooky.
I could see the KD injury giving the Dubs a boost in Game 6 before a potential letdown in Game 7, but they could easily pull off the comeback given their pedigree.
Either way, I like the Dubs in Game 6, but rather than bet them in this game at odds I don’t love, I’m betting on them to win this game indirectly by taking exact series prices on both teams in Game 7.
(Full disclosure: I’m heavier on the Warriors, which I think you have to be to make this bet or you’d just take the points with Raptors in Game 6. But I am hedging a bit, though equal unit sizes would still guarantee profit should the series go the distance.)
Evan Abrams: Raptors +3 (-110) | Raptors in regulation (+143) | GSW HT/TOR FT (+520)
Here are the three bets I will be making before Game 6 tonight. Full disclosure, I already have cashed Raptors +1.5 games and have Raptors to win the series (+240) and Raptors to win the series in six games (12-1) still in the mix.
My belief before the series was Raptors in six games had the best value for a multitude of reasons. After the Warriors escaped Game 5 in Toronto after being down six points with three minutes left, the Raptors are in a good position to bounce back when, ironically enough, the pressure will be on the home team in Oracle if the game Is close.
This theory is represented well in this piece by Bryan Mears:
“Teams up 3-2 in Game 6 and on the road, like the Raptors tonight, have historically gone 50-29 (63.3%) ATS, good for a 23.9% return on investment (ROI) and $1,886 total won on $100 per bet. Those teams have covered by a shocking 4.1 points per game on average.”
In the 2019 NBA playoffs, 26 different three-man lineups have played at least 300 minutes together — eight of those 26 lineups have at least a +10 Net Efficiency rating and four of those eight lineups belong to the Toronto Raptors. They are the better team, tonight is the time to show it. The 6 in six.