Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Our 3 Favorite Plays, Including Luka Dončić & Paul George (June 6)
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic and Paul George.
- The NBA playoffs roll on Sunday with Game 1 of a second-round series between the Hawks and 76ers, plus the Game 7 showdown between the Mavericks and Clippers.
- Dan Titus has a trio of player prop bets, including some on a pair of stars in the important Game 7.
- See which players he's backing and fading below.
The Eastern Conference semifinals began on Saturday night, with the Nets defeating the Bucks in Game 1. The NBA action rolls along on Sunday, with the Hawks-traveling to Philly to face the top-seeded Sixers at 1:00 p.m ET. Following that contest, the Mavs head to LA for one last bout against the Clippers in a pivotal Game 7 matchup that tips off at 3:30 p.m E.T.
A couple of key injuries to watch in the Atlanta-Philly game are the statuses of Joel Embiid and De’Andre Hunter. Both players are questionable with knee injuries, so make sure to check the injury report for any last-minute lineup changes.
I’m backing John Collins and Paul George for today’s props to exceed their assists lines and riding with Luka Dončić to surpass his rebounds + assists combo market. Let’s dive in!
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
John Collins over 0.5 assists (-115)
|Hawks vs. Sixers||Sixers -2.5|
|Time | TV||1 p.m. ET|
The Atlanta Hawks cruised past a stout New York defense in only five games. But this time around, Collins faces a more disruptive opponent in the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid is questionable, which will open up the frontcourt a bit if he can’t go. However, Collins is hardly known for generating assists. He averaged 1.2 assists per game this season, with an average of 1.5 per game in his four-year career. His current assist market stands at 0.5, but he’s more than capable of handing out one helper in Game 1.
Collins has fared well in this assist department versus Philly this season, averaging 1.3 assists across three games played. He had at least one assist in each of those matchups and one game with two dimes.
While his previous performances against Philly paint a strong case for hammering this over, he’s struggled to distribute the ball thus far in the playoffs. In five games against New York, Collins registered a total of three assists. Not too hot, but at the same time, the bar is set at such a low threshold, it’s hard to pass up the value.
Opposing power forwards averaged 3.5 assists per game against Philly this year. Just recently, Wizards power forward Rui Hachimura collected five assists in their first-round series, leaving an opening for Collins to help facilitate some offense for the Hawks. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Philly is allowing the third-most points in the paint in the Playoffs. It’s an important stat to mention because of the three assists Collins accumulated versus the Knicks in Round 1, 66% of them went to Clint Capela.
Atlanta needs to play physically in the paint and on the perimeter to stand a chance in this Game 1 and the series. And that’s where Collins should see some additional touches and, hopefully, more assist opportunities.
Our Lab projections tool has Collins handing out 1.1 assists on Sunday, and with a bet quality rating of 9, I’m taking the short over for Collin’s 0.5 assist prop.
Paul George over 4.5 assists (-112)
|Mavericks vs. Clippers||Clippers -6.5|
|Time | TV||4 p.m. ET | ABC|
It’s Game 7, and Sunday is going to be another defining moment for Paul George. Will Playoff P show up and help guide the Clippers to the next round? Or, will Pandemic P rear its ugly head and possibly send the Clippers packing?
Rather than worry about PG-13’s struggles from deep, I’m pivoting to his assist market at 4.5. George has exceeded 4.5 assists in four out of six games in this series, including two consecutive games with at least six assists. He’s been doing an exceptional job creating buckets for Los Angeles, assisting on 20.1% of the Clippers made baskets thus far in the Playoffs.
According to Cleaning the Glass, George ranks in the 85th percentile in assist to usage ratio, as well-meaning the frequency at which he generates an assist given how much he’s had the ball. He continues to feed Kawhi Leonard, and rightfully so. Leonard’s been on fire, so it makes sense to create opportunities for the former Finals MVP to score.
The game total opened up at 214.5, and it’s currently down to 210.5. While this is not a positive sign for game flow, it’s no surprise that Game 7 is trending towards a dogfight. The Clippers are 6.5-point favorites, but given how close this series has been and the home teams failing to come away with a victory, it will likely be more competitive than the spread suggests.
George’s assist numbers were better at home (5.7) than on the road (4.8) in the regular season, and he’s put together a string of strong outings as a home favorite. According to Fansure, he’s eclipsed 4.5 assists in four of his last five contests as a home favorite.
George is the primary facilitator for the Clippers right now, averaging 51.8 passes per game. Per Second Spectrum, PG-13 is averaging 8.5 potential assists per game in the Playoffs. Our Lab projections tool has George getting 5.2 assists with a bet quality of 7. With the series on the line, George’s usage will remain sky-high as he looks for his teammates to finish off the Mavs.
Luka Dončić over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
|Mavericks vs. Clippers||Clippers -6.5|
|Time | TV||4 p.m. ET | ABC|
I recommended a Luka Dončić points prop last Sunday, and unfortunately, that was the game when his neck ailment severely impacted his performance. That seemed to be a one-game outlier because outside of that 19-point outing, he put up a ridiculous 37 points per game in his first-round series versus Los Angeles.
Fresh off a 29-point game where he appeared to run out of gas in the fourth quarter, I like Dončić’s rebounds and assist combo market for Game 7 at 17.5 today.
Luka’s disappearing act in the fourth quarter is pretty evident. The Clippers’ strategy is to wear Dončić down, so he’s gassed by the end of the game. Just how bad is it? According to NBA Advanced Stats, he’s averaging 3.4 points on 22.2 percent shooting, 1.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.4 turnovers in five fourth quarters of this series.
Despite being 6.5-point underdogs to the Clips, I expect the Mavs to put in a better team effort in hopes of advancing to the next round. One constant that won’t change is Luka’s extremely high usage rate. Per Cleaning the Glass, Dončić is sporting a 45.1% usage while racking up 48.7% of Dallas’ assist total for the series. He’s also in the 100th percentile for collecting 22.0 % of the Mavericks’ defensive rebounds.
Dončić may very well still put up a 30-piece special, but I think there’s a stronger chance that he has his hands in all facets of the game. For good measure, he’s gone over on his current 17.5 combo market in four of his six games in this series. With averages of 9.7 assists and 8.0 rebounds, the second-year phenom is more than capable of putting up a triple-double in the most important game of the season.
Our Lab projections tool has Luka bringing the magic, finishing with 20.5 rebounds + assists. With a bet quality rating of 8, I’m ready to watch Luka fill up the box score and cash the over on his 17.5 combo line.
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