The Boston Celtics (1-2) and New York Knicks (2-1) will face off in Game 4 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Celtics -6.5), with the over/under set at 208.5 total points. Boston is a -250 favorite to win outright, while New York is +205 to pull off the upset.
New York had a sobering and disappointing outing in the previous matchup of this series, after the mad hype of taking a 2-0 lead over the defending champs. Will the Celtics topple them again in Game 4 to avoid any more nonsense from the upstarts? Or will New York push Boston to the brink of elimination by winning one tiny home game tonight?
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 12.
Celtics vs. Knicks Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 4
My Knicks vs. Celtics Game 4 best bet is on New York to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Knicks +6.5 (-110)
Celtics vs. Knicks Odds for Monday, May 12
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 208.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 208.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
- Celtics vs. Knicks spread: Celtics -6.5
- Celtics vs. Knicks over/under: 208.5 total points
- Celtics vs. Knicks moneyline: Celtics -250, Knicks +205
- Celtics vs. Knicks best bet:Knicks +6.5 (-110)
Celtics vs. Knicks Game 4 Preview
Boston can finally breathe again. The three-pointers fell, the Knicks couldn’t score, and the series is now 2-1.
The Celtics can restore order completely by winning Game 4 at the Garden tonight to even the series, meaning they just need to win two of three from the Knicks the rest of the way, whom they are 5-2 against this season, to advance to the conference finals.
However, the market overestimates Boston, but underestimates the matchup. That’s what makes this difficult.
The Celtics got the shots they wanted in Game 1. They missed. They tried to take different shots in Game 2. They also missed.
They got good shots in Game 3, maybe the best of the series based on rhythm and execution.But they also hit just as unusually high of an amount as they missed in Game 1. The Celtics made 20 three-pointers at a 50% clip in the previous matchup of this series. It was the 27th time since 2003 that’s happened.
Teams after shooting 50% or better from 3-point range and making 20+ threes are 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS in the following game.
There’s just likely to be some negative regression to the Celtics’ game of positive regression.
The other question is what the Knicks can do offensively.
The Knicks have been heavily dependent on Jalen Brunson, and their offense has been best with him on the floor. But New York has a little more meat on the bone they can chew by getting Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges more involved.
For example, the Celtics are pre-switching by having Jayson Tatum defend Towns, which means Tatum can switch onto Brunson in the 1-5 pick and roll. But Towns is 5-of-10 when defended by Tatum, and any possession he can wear him out is worth it.
I lean enough toward Knicks here to play the Knicks +6.5 and sprinkle the moneyline.
Celtics vs. Knicks Betting Predictions for Game 4
Under 209 (-115)
Remember that trend about what happens after you shoot better than 50% from 3-point range while making more than 20 threes like Boston did last game?
Well, the Under in those games is 17-9 (65%).
The Celtics’ defense was the most impressive part of their win in Game 3, and might hold up here, even with some Knicks adjustments.
New York’s defense is flawed, but has found ways to get late stops. I like the Under at 209.
Derrick White Over 16.5 Points (+104)
White’s gone over this in six of eight playoff games, and three straight against the Knicks, even with Boston’s uneven shooting variance.
White makes things happen for transition layups, and he is their second-best catch-and-shoot guy.
Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+140)
Pritchard has gone over this in each of the last two games, and the Knicks are going to continue to give him good looks.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125)
Towns leads the Knicks in playoff rebound chances by a wide margin.
If I think the Celtics miss more in this game, Towns should go over this line, even with a damaged hand.
Celtics vs. Knicks Game 4 Best Bets
- Knicks +6.5 (-110)
- Under 209 (-115)
- Derrick White Over 16.5 Points (+104)
- Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+140)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125)
Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Trends
