Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Wednesday: Will Nikola Jokic Dish 8 Dimes?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Wednesday: Will Nikola Jokic Dish 8 Dimes? article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down how he's betting Nuggets C Nikola Jokic's assist prop on Wednesday night.

The NBA player prop highlighted below is from Wednesday night’s lone playoff matchup:

  • Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:15 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Nuggets C Nikola Jokic

THE PICK: Over 7.5 Assists (-125)

Joker dished just six dimes in 41.5 minutes against the Blazers in Game 1, but you can chalk that up to variance: According to NBA Stats, his teammates converted just six of his 15 potential assists to buckets — well below their usual 66% clip. (For contrast, they converted on eight of Jamal Murray’s nine potential assists.)

During the regular season, Joker averaged nearly a full assist more per game at home (7.7 in 31.0 minutes vs. 6.8 in 31.6), and he’s been playing 37.9 minutes a night in the postseason, which easily puts him on pace to go over 7.5 even after accounting for the fact that Portland allows 6% fewer assists than the average team.

He’s handed out at least eight assists in 24-of-45 (53%) home games, but after adjusting for the 22% increase in minutes (less Portland’s below-average assist rate allowed), the over should have value up to -160.

Our NBA Player Models have him projected for 9.5 assists, and our props tool rates this prop a 10 in Bet Quality (59% win rate this season) with a 24% cushion between projected and implied total.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.