We have a total of three NBA props for this weekend, as I'll be focusing on a trio of key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in Game 6 between the Knicks and Pacers on Saturday night.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Saturday, May 31.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, May 31
- Jalen Brunson Under 38.5 Points + Assists (-110)
- Miles McBride Over 0.5 Turnovers (+145)
- Aaron Nesmith Over 0.5 Assists (-120)
Jalen Brunson Under 38.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Knicks vs. Pacers, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 6 opened with a total of 220 points, but that number is already down to 217.5 at some sportsbooks.
Based on that market move, we can make some assumptions in the props market by targeting players who are likely to fall below their projected numbers.
New York’s Jalen Brunson could fall into that category, considering he’s likely to find things a bit tougher playing away from home.
Brunson has a points + assists prop of 38.5 — a number he has failed to cover in five straight games on the road.
Moreover, if we examine his head-to-head numbers against the Pacers on the road, Brunson has also stayed under 38.5 points and assists in seven of their last eight meetings.
With the early signs pointing to a lower-scoring game, fading Brunson’s points + assists prop is a great option when looking for a correlated play.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 38.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Miles McBride Over 0.5 Turnovers
Knicks vs. Pacers, 8:00 p.m. ET
Miles McBride is firmly in the Knicks rotation as one of three players off the bench to play in all 16 playoff games thus far.
The West Virginia product is particularly key because he can offer a scoring threat when the Knicks opt to give Brunson a rest.
McBride often gives the Knicks some good minutes and does a decent job running the offense while limiting his turnovers. He averaged 0.6 giveaways in 24.9 minutes during the regular season.
Therefore, it’s not entirely surprising that his turnover prop is right at 0.5 for Game 6.
However, he has shown to be more error-prone against the Pacers, registering at least one turnover in the last four games of the series.
A closer look reveals that McBride has turned the ball over in 11 of the last 12 games against the Pacers, which includes a turnover in six straight meetings on the road.
Given McBride’s favorable odds of +145 to record a turnover, this offer is simply too good to pass up.
Pick: Miles McBride Over 0.5 Turnovers (+145, bet365)
Aaron Nesmith Over 0.5 Assists
Knicks vs. Pacers, 8:00 p.m. ET
Aaron Nesmith rarely turns down the opportunity for a shot if you give him the ball. During the regular season, the Pacers forward shot 50% from the floor and 43% from the perimeter.
Nesmith has matched his field goal percentage in the playoffs but also upped his 3-point shooting to 50%.
Thus, with that kind of success, you can understand why he’s constantly looking to score when the ball is in his hands. His 1.2 assists in the playoffs are practically identical to what he posted in the regular season.
Given those numbers, it’s not entirely surprising that bookmakers have set his assists prop at 0.5. However, the juice is only -120 considering Nesmith recorded at least one assist in 42 of 60 games (70%) this season.
He’s been on a decent run, registering one or more assists in five of his last six home games and six of his previous seven meetings against the Knicks in this spot.
I project his odds should be closer to a range between -150 and -160, so we’re getting tremendous value on the current price of -120.
Pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 0.5 Assists (-120, bet365)
