The Indiana Pacers (3-1) and New York Knicks (1-3) will face off in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Knicks -4.5), with the over/under set at 222.5 total points. New York is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +150 to pull off the upset.
The Pacers have a chance to finish the job on the road in Game 5 tonight, where they’ve been amazing in this postseason, and punch their ticket to their first NBA Finals appearance in 25 years. Can Indiana seal the deal? Or will New York fight off the ledge to force a pressure-filled sixth game?
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, May 29.
Pacers vs Knicks Prediction for Eastern Conference Finals Game 5
My Pacers vs. Knicks Game 5 best bet is on Indiana to cover the first half spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers First Half Spread +2.5 (-115)
Pacers vs Knicks Odds, Picks for Thursday, May 29
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Pacers vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -4.5
- Pacers vs. Knicks over/under: 222.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Knicks moneyline: Pacers +150, Knicks -180
- Pacers vs. Knicks best bet:Pacers 1H +2.5 (-115)
Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 5 Preview
You can script playoff series from the start. Not in a “the league is rigged” kind of way, but in an “you can count on this” way.
Take Knicks-Pacers for example.
There was going to be one Tyrese Haliburton game (Game 4). There was going to be one Karl-Anthony Towns game (Game 3). There would be two coin flips (Games 1 and 3). There would be one Knicks letdown game (Game 2). There would be one Jalen Brunson game (Game 1). There would be one cold-shooting Pacers game (Game 3).
The problem is when those games overlap. The first matchup of this series was a coin flip game, a Brunson game, and a hot shooting Pacers game, and went Indiana’s way.
As a result, the Knicks are down 3-1 instead of 2-2.
The Pacers truly earned the win in the series opener. They’ve been the better team across the span of this series from start.
Knicks' fans can argue that it should be 2-2, while Pacers' fans can argue that after going up 20 points and then hitting a terrible cold spell in New York's lone win, this could have been a sweep.
You are not going to believe how bad the trends are for the Pacers here.
- Teams up 3-1 on the road in the conference finals are 9-18 all-time.
- Teams up 3-1 on the road are 14-38 SU and 21-31 ATS since 2003.
- Road underdogs in this spot are 12-32 SU (27.3%) and 19-25 ATS.
- In the conference finals, road underdogs are 3-6 SU and ATS
- Teams coming off a Game 4 win on the road for Game 5 are 11-36 SU and 18-29 ATS.
- Road teams in Game 5 in the conference finals, regardless of series record, are 12-25 SU and 15-22 ATS.
- Teams with a chance to advance (three wins) who are more than 4-point underdogs are 30-86 SU and 47-68-1 ATS (41%).
Every indicator says that the Knicks escape Game 5 alive tonight.
The Pacers, though, have been smashing trend spots all playoffs.
Given that most of these games have been in doubt in the fourth quarter, it should feel like this could go either way. However, that really doesn’t reflect how it feels watching this series.
Everything has looked easy for the Pacers, and everything has looked difficult for the Knicks.
The Pacers have been able to play at their preferred tempo (aside from Game 3), while the Knicks have foolishly tried to match that energy and run back at the best up-tempo team in the league.
Josh Hart, who is always such a huge positive due to his hustle plays and how he fills up the box score, has been a disaster for New York in this series.
The Knicks are getting sliced and diced in the minutes their two best players share the floor (Brunson and Towns).
New York is relying on Landry Shamet and Delon Wright to come in and provide, not only good bench minutes, but also actual ball movement and good offense.
Pacers vs Knicks Betting Predictions for Game 5
Pacers First Half Spread +2.5 (-115)
The Pacers are incessant in not getting knocked off balance.
I’ve said this since their first playoff game against Milwaukee, and it’s been true in every game since: Indiana hits first, fastest, hardest, and usually last. But the first part of that sentiment is where I think the best value lies.
The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in the first half this postseason.
If the Knicks win Game 5 tonight, it might require a late run and another Brunson clutch adventure.
I’m staying away from the full-game spread because of those trends, but I’ll play Pacers first half.
Under 223 (-110)
Last game flew over the total, thanks to great efficiency from the Pacers and the fastest pace of any game in the series.
The Pacers got out and ran, posting an 81st percentile rate of transition plays (17.7%) for the playoffs.
That’s well above what the Knicks have allowed this postseason, especially at home, though New York has been one of the worst teams at allowing transition opportunities in the playoffs.
The Knicks’ best hope is to try and drag the game down into the mud and play a halfcourt game with lots of fouls.
They haven’t had the discipline to execute that game plan yet, but Game 5 is a good spot to try and get Indiana out of its comfort zone.
Some total trends:
- Teams facing elimination at home in Game 5 have seen the under go 27-23-2 (54%) since 2003.
- Game 5s in the conference finals have gone under at 20-17 (54%).
- Game 5s in the conference finals after Game 4 went over are 11-7 to the under.
- Overall in the playoffs, Game 5s after Game 4 went over are 67-55 to the over.
We’re now 2-2 over/under in the series.
However, I think we'll either see the Knicks buckle down and get some stops by finally slowing the tempo, or the Pacers shut down New York's offense, which can’t seem to get consistent flow.
OG Anunoby Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-137)
Anunoby has gone over this line in three of the four games in the series, going under just by the hook in the second matchup.
He’s found more ways to attack and get down hill, and he’s playing more as a secondary playmaker in the non-Brunson minutes.
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Turnovers (-140)
Brunson has gone over this line in three straight games, and Indiana has figured out more ways to crowd him.
Even his foul-drawing techniques run the risk of getting called for offensive fouls, and if he doesn’t get the call, it’s an automatic turnover most times.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (+100)
There will be unnecessary concern about Towns’ availability after he had a knee-to-knee hit towards the end of last game.
Those types of hits never really last, they just hurt like hell in the moment.
In the meantime, he’s been a monster on the glass, and still went over this line last game, despite some foul trouble.
Pacers vs Knicks Game 5 Best Bets
- Pacers 1H +2.5 (-115)
- Under 223 (-110)
- OG Anunoby Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-137)
- Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Turnovers (-140)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (+100)
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