The New York Knicks (2-3) and Indiana Pacers (3-2) will face off in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Pacers are 4-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread, with the over/under set at 221.5 total points. Indiana is a -175 favorite to win outright, while New York is +145 to pull off the upset.
The Knicks did it! They extended the series to a sixth game with a dominant win in the previous matchup.
Will Tyrese Haliburton respond again, or will he shrink from the moment? Will Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns be the best players on the floor once again, or will New York’s defense prove to be its downfall?
A trip to the Finals is on the line in Game 6 tonight! Let's get into my Knicks vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, May 31.
Knicks vs Pacers Prediction, Picks for NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 6
My Pacers vs. Knicks Game 6 best bet is on Indiana to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers -4 (-110)
Knicks vs Pacers Betting Odds for Saturday, May 31
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Knicks vs. Pacers spread: Pacers -4
- Knicks vs. Pacers over/under: 221.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Pacers moneyline: Knicks +145, Pacers -175
- Knicks vs. Pacers best bet: Pacers -4 (-110)
New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 6 Preview
Fans and pundits are torn on where the pressure lies in Game 6 tonight.
Is it on the Pacers, who risk heading back to the Garden, having lost three of four with the history of teams at home in Game 7?
Or is it the Knicks, facing elimination for the second game in a row?
I told you that the spot was terrible for Indiana last game. Well, the spot for the Knicks in Game 6 ain’t great either.
Here's some trends.
- Teams up 3-2 are 21-13 in Game 6 in the conference finals at home, all-time.
- Home favorites up 3-2 in Game 6 are 39-17 SU, but only 28-28 ATS.
- However, teams that were up 3-2 and lost in Game 5 are 25-7 SU and 18-14 ATS (57%).
- Teams up 3-2 at home after losing Game 5 are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS, and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the conference finals.
- Teams who lost by 15+ points in Game 5 and are home favorites in Game 6 with a chance to close out are 7-3 SU and ATS.
From the basketball side, there are obviously things that favor the Knicks after last game.
They moved their pick-ups on Haliburton to past halfcourt, pressuring him and not letting him get into sets comfortably.
This is something I think the Pacers can counter, because one of the results of trying to beat that pressure is playing faster, which many teams struggle with, but Indiana can actually do so.
It’s also likely to tire out the Knicks faster than a deeper Pacers squad.
The Knicks had enough legs last game partly because they got the margin to 15+ points and kept it there. It’s harder to sustain in a close-game environment.
They forced way more turnovers than the Pacers normally allow (20).
Even with the fact that the Knicks only created 15 points off turnovers on those 20 attempts, it took the Pacers out of their comfort zone.
The Knicks ran way more isolation than pick-and-roll last game, avoiding switches and double-teams and letting their stars cook.
Those are probably the easiest things for the Pacers to adjust to.
Knicks vs Pacers Game 6 Betting Predictions
Pacers -4 (-110)
The Knicks can win this game. They can win the series. But the overreaction to last game has been strong, suggesting that the Knicks have solved the Pacers.
Series tend to have a rhythm and flow.
Typically, the team down 3-1 at home responds with the kind of game that the Knicks put together. But they threw more than a handful of adjustments at the Pacers to get that win.
Now the Pacers get to respond.
When teams up 3-2 at home win to close out the series in Game 6 after losing Game 5, the average margin of victory is 14.5 points and the average ATS margin is 11.6.
So, I’m playing some alternate lines with this as well, up to -12.5 on the Pacers to advance to their first NBA Finals since 2000.
Over 221.5 (-110)
Let's take a look at some total trends.
- Game 6s after the first round are 110-80-6 to the under at 57%.
- Eastern Conference Game 6s since 2003 after the first round are 67-33-4 to the under (67%).
- When the total is less than the Game 5 total, the under 64-44-2 (59%).
So, of course, I’m going the other way. The Pacers are the exception here.
- The over is 14-5 in Pacers' wins the last two postseasons, including 8-3 this postseason; 4-1 to the over in home wins.
- If you want to go the other way, when home favorites lose Game 6 up 3-2, the over is 5-2.
- When the Pacers are coming off a game where they went under their team total, the over is 6-1 the last two postseasons.
Indiana shot terribly, wasn’t aggressive, and had 20 turnovers last game.
None of that is indicative of who the Pacers have been since last season.
The best shooting team in the playoffs shot 41% from the field and 33% from three-point range.
There are counters to how the Knicks defended Indiana last game, and it starts with finishing transition possessions, which will speed up the game.
T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points + Assists (-130)
McConnell has gone over this line in four of five games in this series.
If I like the over, it’s likely that McConnell gets the bench to score a little bit.
He also winds up playing in more 10-point Indiana wins than you’d think.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 30.5 Points + Assists (-140)
In Pacers playoff wins, Haliburton averages 30.7 points and assists.
The biggest risk is Haliburton playing enough minutes, but unless the game gets completely out of hand, he should be there.
He’s been reliable when it comes to bouncing back after losses as well.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-105)
Nothing really stops Towns from getting boards.
He’s gone over this line in four of five games in this series, and three straight heading into Game 6 tonight.
Knicks vs Pacers Best Bets for Game 6
- Pacers -4 (-110)
- Over 221.5 (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 30.5 Points + Assists (-140)
- T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points + Assists (-130)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-105)
Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Trends
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