Thursday’s 3 Best NBA Player Props: What to Expect in Trevor Ariza’s Portland Debut
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Ariza
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from each of the slate’s three games:
- Wizards at Cavaliers: 7 p.m. ET
- Lakers at Nets: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Mavericks at Trail Blazers: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Nets C Jarrett Allen
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-117) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Allen is a late prop value, and you’re going to want to grab this line quick before it inevitably goes up before tip.
So why the sudden late value? DeAndre Jordan was an afternoon scratch, and that means Jarrett Allen should get a lion’s share of the center minutes against a Lakers team that could well be without Anthony Davis tonight.
Allen is a strong rebounder and typically produces when on the court, and our models project him at 32.5 minutes tonight now that Jordan is out.
That puts him at 12.1 projected rebounds and gives a lot of margin for value here, even if the line rises to 10 or 10.5. At this number, I’m playing Allen as high as -175.
Wizards PG Isaiah Thomas
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-118) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Isaiah Thomas is not the player he once was, but he can still score in bursts, and it’s those bursts that we’re fading tonight. Thomas is the starter in Washington, but Ish Smith typically plays more minutes for the Wizards, and Thomas simply isn’t scoring much anymore.
IT has single-digit points in eight of 11 games in January, and even his games over have typically been close to this number at 12, 14, and 17. That’s only one game all month where you never had a chance on this bet.
Every other game is close enough to back the model and fade Thomas’ points, rated a 10 out of 10. I’ll play Thomas up to -150.
Blazers SF Trevor Ariza
THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (+115), Under 5.5 rebounds (-106) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Trevor Ariza is expected to make his debut for the Blazers tonight, but let’s just say we’re probably not looking at Carmelo Anthony, Part II, here. Ariza is going to step into Kent Bazemore’s role as a 3-and-D guy. He projects into a lower usage role and might not even play many minutes, depending on how Portland sets its lineups.
Our model is giving Ariza 26.4 minutes, a healthy load, and it still projects him at just 5.9 points and 4.1 rebounds, both well short of his lines here. Both of these unders are rated a 10 tonight, though I like the points better.
There’s more margin for error there and much more favorable juice. I’ll ride Ariza’s points up to -120, and I’m not afraid to double down and play his rebounds too up to -125.