The Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers will face off in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Cavaliers are 8-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Cavaliers -8), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. Cleveland is a -325 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks on Sunday, May 4.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 1
My Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 1 best bet is on the Under at 229.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 229.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Odds for Sunday, May 4
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -8
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers over/under: 229.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Pacers +260, Cavaliers -325
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers best bet:Under 229.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Preview
The Cavaliers and Pacers meet in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals this evening, with Indiana listed as a steep road underdog against the No. 1 seed in today's series opener.
The Pacers have a penchant for chaos. They play with a freedom and confidence that goes beyond their talent and overall resume.
There’s a reason this Indiana team snuck into the conference finals last year, and it wasn’t just due to opponent injuries.
The Cavaliers are a different beast though. They absolutely tore through the league this season and demolished the Heat in record-breaking fashion.
Whether that performance will lead to discomfort when they face actual opposition remains to be seen.
On the side, I make this spread right on the number at Cavaliers -8 based on power rating.
If I use a more normalized homecourt advantage, there’s slight value on the Pacers. But while the Pacers won the season series 3-1, the Cavaliers’ starters won their minutes by heavy margin.
There’s no real edge on the side. The total is a different story though…
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Betting Predictions for Game 1
Under 229.5
I have a bunch of Overs in this game. So, you know, fun inverse correlation, I guess? But I project this game at 220 based on playoff trends.
Indiana had the 7th-best net rating against top-10 teams during the regular season, better than the Cavs’ 12th ranking. They also had the 8th-best defense against top-10 offenses.
Although they struggled in isolation and containment, they rotated well and limited three-pointers.
The key for the Cavaliers is their best lineup. The Cavs had a 107 defensive rating with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland (questionable for Game 1), De'Andre Hunter, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen together.
For the most part, their core-four held opponents under 113 in offensive rating.
Neither team is blazing fast, with both teams in the first round in the top six of percentage of plays in halfcourt.
The Cavaliers will blitz Tyrese Haliburton, forcing other players to make plays and rotating to make them keep moving the ball. Both teams are likely to use heavy amounts of zone in this series, and that will further bog down the offenses.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Cavaliers are likely to play at the level of the screen and blitz Tyrese Haliburton to get the ball out of his hands. Doing so opens up two mechanisms that lead to Myles Turner three-pointers.
The first is simple pick-and-pop actions. Jarrett Allen has to respect Haliburton’s drive, so he’ll keep contain instead of peeling back to Turner.
The second will be extra dishes from Haliburton to the corner, where Turner generated several shots in the regular season series.
Turner took 2, 4,4, and 6 attempts against the Cavaliers this season in fewer minutes.
He’ll play more in this game, and should have more opportunities. I also like Turner over 2.5 three-pointers made at +158.
Andrew Nembhard Over 12.5 Points
The Cavaliers played entirely different coverage against Nembhard than Haliburton.
They played drop coverage in screen actions, letting Nembhard get to mid-range shots where he’s good. This allowed them to keep Darius Garland on him.
Nembhard will get high quality looks that the Cavs are willing to live with defensively.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Best Bets
- Under 229.5 (-110)
- Myles Turner Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-180)
- Andrew Nembhard Over 12.5 Points (-105)
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Betting Trends
