We have three NBA props for this Sunday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on a trio of key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight's playoff doubleheader.
Continue below for our NBA player props for Sunday, May 4.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, May 4
- Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 Points (-105, Fanatics)
- Andrew Nembhard Over 11.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
- Donovan Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists (-115, DraftKings)
Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 Points
Warriors vs Rockets, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Rockets went to the Chase Center and forced a Game 7 with a 115-107 victory. Fred VanVleet led the way with 29 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.
It was his fourth straight game with at least 17 points. That has sent this line on the rise as well. However, that is not a surprise considering that he has scored 25 points in each of the last three games.
On Friday, I cashed in on VanVleet's points, and I am going back to the well for virtually the same reason. The Rockets have a young team and this will be the first Game 7 for many on the team.
VanVleet is one of the veterans in the group, and he has played in several big games throughout his career. You would expect that he will not be afraid of the moment and he has proven that over the last week.
Additionally, he is on a heater right now, shooting 23-for-39 (58.9%) from the field and 18-for-27 (66.7%) from three. Even if you bake in a little regression, he has attempted 13 field goals in five of the six games and is averaging 39 minutes per game.
I would expect that VanVleet will approach 40 minutes, which will give him ample opportunity to score 18 points. If he goes for 25 or more again, you can back him at +425 on Fanatics.
Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 Points (-105, Fanatics)
Andrew Nembhard Over 11.5 Points
Pacers vs Cavaliers, 6:00 p.m. ET
Andrew Nembhard may not be a household name around the league, but he has established himself as a playoff performer.
Last postseason, Nembhard hit several big shots and stepped up after Tyrese Haliburton got hurt. He averaged 14.9 points and 5.5 assists per game. He nearly matched those numbers in the first round series against Milwaukee, averaging 15 points and 4.9 assists.
Nembhard cleared this line in four of the five games against the Bucks, scoring 15 points or more. What is interesting about Nembhard is that he gets more aggressive in the playoffs.
Over the last two seasons, he attempted three more field goals per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season. The Pacers may need that aggression to steal Game 1 as an eight-point underdog.
It is hard to glean much from the regular season meetings, as Haliburton missed one game and Nembhard only played 14 minutes in another. However, he did score 19 points in one of the meetings and cracked double figures in two others.
Both he and Haliburton have a height advantage over Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Nembhard may be a forgotten man on the totem pole behind Pascal Siakam, Haliburton, and perhaps Myles Turner as well. That may help him crack 12 points tonight.
Pick: Andrew Nembhard Over 11.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
Donovan Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists
Pacers vs Cavaliers, 6:00 p.m. ET
Nembhard is one of the players who will spend defending Mitchell. Frankly, the Pacers have struggled to defend him as he has scored 30 points in six of his last 10 games against them.
He also scored 30 points in the first two games of Cleveland's sweep over Miami, but his scoring was not needed much as it dominated the final two games of the series.
Mitchell's points line is 26.5 tonight and while I lean over, a related play is the under on his assists.
Mitchell has attempted 20 field goals or more in four of his last five games against the Pacers. In that span, he has had six assists in just one of those games, including two games with one assist.
In the two most recent meetings — under new head coach Kenny Atkinson — Mitchell had four assists and 16 potential assists combined.
Now, even if that number gets closer to 50% or so, it is not likely that he would have six assists if he had only eight potential assists.
Mitchell also only had six assists in one of the four games against Miami and averaged four for the series. Garland missed practice yesterday, but he is still questionable for tonight's game. If he returns, Mitchell will be able to focus on scoring even more.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists (-115, DraftKings)
