The NBA Playoffs resume with an excellent doubleheader of matchups on TNT this Sunday, as Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 1 officially tips off the second round at 6:00 p.m. ET, before backtracking to close out the first round with Warriors vs. Rockets Game 7 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 5 NBA picks spanning both of tonight's contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Sunday, May 4.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Sunday, May 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
| 6 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 6 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Warriors vs. Rockets
Jimmy Butler in a Game 7? Why not!
Butler has had 25 or more in three games this series. In the other three, one was a blowout loss, one was an eight-minute appearance shortened due to injury, and he didn't play the other game because of said injury.
Butler scored 28 in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023 — which was on the road, 35 against the same team in the same situation one year earlier, and had other big closeout performances over the last few years.
Butler scored 42 when the Heat closed out Milwaukee on the road in 2023, and he scored 32 in a road closeout game against the Sixers in the semifinals in 2022.
In a closeout road game — a Game 7, at that — I'll back Butler to hold up his end.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 23.5 Points (-120)
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Warriors vs. Rockets
Despite jumping out to a 3-1 advantage in the series, Golden State suffered back-to-back defeats and will now head back to Houston for a decisive Game 7.
While the Rockets are very much a young team, you could argue that they’re in the midst of a coming-of-age moment given how they’ve been able to battle back in this series.
Houston has performed admirably with their backs against the wall, and I would also argue that they’ve been easily the better side in each of the last three games.
The Rockets shot 49.8% from the floor compared to 41.6% for the Warriors, while posting fewer turnovers (39 to 41) and eking out a slight advantage in the rebounding category (126-125).
Before the series, the Rockets' biggest question was whether their offense was potent enough to go toe-to-toe with Golden State. However, they’ve managed to resolve those issues by attacking a glaring weakness on the Warriors: their ability to stop drives into the paint.
The Warriors have allowed 179 free throw attempts to the Rockets compared to just 113 for their opponents. Typically, you’d expect the more veteran team to get the bulk of the whistles, but that hasn’t been the case in this series.
Given their athleticism, the Rockets have shown they can defend the Warriors without having to foul. As a result, they’ve grown in confidence, which could spell trouble for Golden State.
Historically, home playoff teams seeded No. 3 or higher that are coming off back-to-back wins heading into a Game 7 are 5-2 straight up and against the spread.
With the Rockets laying a short price at -2.5, I’ll swallow the juice on the moneyline and back the favorites with odds of -135.
Pick: Rockets Moneyline (-135)
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Pacers vs. Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have shown their ability all season to play by committee, and Donovan Mitchell has been the type of star to willingly defer to teammates if it is best for the team.
I expect Aaron Nesmith to get the first attempt to guard Mitchell, with a good rim protector in Myles Turner for help defense.
Here's the kicker, I do expect Darius Garland back.
With Garland confirmed in with the toe sprain, it should take some usage away from Mitchell and bring down his prop a point or simply increase the vig.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 Points (-125)
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Pacers vs. Cavaliers
By Joe Dellera
The Cavaliers kick off the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Pacers on Sunday. These teams are divisional rivals and have already played four times this season.
One player that consistently cooks in this matchup is Donovan Mitchell.
Over the last two seasons, Mitchell has played four games against Indiana, and has averaged 31.3 points with 30+ in three of the four games. He consistently gets wherever he wants on the floor.
Mitchell is a playoff riser, and sees not only a minutes bump, but a usage bump in the postseason as well.
He can score against any defense, but with his familiarity against Indiana, I’m expecting a big Game 1 from Donovan.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 26.5 Points (-110)
Pacers vs. Cavaliers
This has been a one-sided Over market so far, increasing from the open at 226.5 up to 229. I have this modeled at 229.4, and think it still worth taking the Over at this number.
Both offenses are playing fast despite a playoff atmosphere, and we will get more minutes in this environment for the starters.
I expect consistent offensive output, these were two teams to back Overs in Round 1, and both myself and the betting market expect it to continue in Round 2.
Play below 230, but stop there.
Pick: Over 229 (-112)
