Raptors-Nuggets Betting Guide: Is Denver Undervalued Against the Injured Toronto?

Betting odds: Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets

• Spread: Nuggets -1.5
• Over/Under: 210
• Time: 8 p.m. ET

The 23-8 Raptors will visit the 19-9 Nuggets, but Toronto will be without crucial pieces in Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Jonas Valanciunas and Fred VanVleet.

Has the betting market accounted for those injuries enough, or is there still value?

Betting Trends to Know

The Raptors are on their third four-game road trip of the season already. They lost on the road in Portland before finishing up the trip in Denver.

Teams that have won at least two-thirds of games in December or earlier are only 13-27-1 (32.5%) against the spread when playing at least their fourth consecutive game on the road and are coming off a straight-up loss — a spot many bettors would assume a bounce-back could be coming. Teams are failing to cover the spread by 3.3 points per game, losing bettors 14.5 units.

None of the previous 41 teams in this spot shot higher than 50% from the field in their previous game. Toronto shot 56% in its loss against the Blazers.

On Friday night, the Raptors lost to the Blazers on the road and now face the Nuggets in Denver. The Raptors have one of the best records in the NBA, but traveling to Denver is never easy.

Since 2005, teams with a win rate of at least 60% that travel to Denver on at least the second straight road game are 29-51-1 (36.3%) ATS, failing to cover by 2.9 points per game, losing bettors 23.1 units.

In this spot, no road location is less profitable for teams than Denver, with Memphis the second-least profitable city at a full 8 units behind Denver. — Evan Abrams

The Raptors have the NBA's best record and yet are only 14-16-1 ATS. Since 2005, teams with a win rate of 70% or better and a losing ATS record like Toronto have gone 49-29-2 (63%) ATS when listed as underdogs. — John Ewing

Mears: Why the Raptors Could Struggle

The Raptors will be without Lowry and Siakam. VanVleet is doubtful while Valanciunas is out for at least another month.

Toronto will definitely be thin on Sunday night.

Of course, they Raptors will still have Kawhi Leonard, who is getting buzz as an MVP candidate in his bounce-back season in Toronto. That said, a ton of stats suggest that Lowry has actually been their best player this season.

The Raptors' bench was so good last season that their best players — Lowry and DeMar DeRozan — had negative on/off numbers. In 2,499 minutes a year ago, the team was actually 1.3 points per 100 possessions better with Lowry on the bench than with him on.

That doesn't say much about Lowry; rather, the bench was historically good.

That hasn't been the case this season, and Lowry's on/off numbers are about as drastic as you'll see in the league. Through his 992 minutes, the Raptors have been a ridiculous 13.7 points/100 worse with him off the floor. Their Offensive Rating has dipped by a stupid 14.3 points/100.

The Raps have survived without Kawhi for points this season, but that's mostly because Lowry has been so dominant. The team's effective field goal percentage has been 6.3% better with Lowry playing, which is in the 98th-percentile of all players this season.

The team has shot 6.2% better at the rim and 4.9% better from the 3-point line. They're 8.6% better on corner 3s, which makes sense given how brilliant Lowry has been operating the offense.

So it's easy to think Kawhi is more important and that the Raps will be fine without Lowry, but the stats suggest that isn't true. And that doesn't even factor in the absence of Siakam, who has an on/off differential of +17.3 points/100 (97th percentile). He's been a breakout stud.

I grabbed this line at Denver +3 right after the injuries were announced on Sunday afternoon, and now it sits at Denver -1.5 at most places. I still think there's a bit of value on that number, though it could continue to move. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.