Conference Tournament Betting Tip: Recent ATS Results Point to Value

Mar 15, 2019 5:51 PM EDT
Credit:

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White

  • A team's recent against the spread performance will influence how the public wagers on conference tournament games.
  • Using Bet Labs, we find a profitable postseason system that exploits matchups featuring opponents with good and bad ATS records.

Historically, public bettors tend to wager on teams that have been covering the spread and fade those that haven’t. It’s basic human nature to believe that something will continue to happen because it has in the past.

In fact, according to Bet Labs, since 2005, teams that have covered at least three of their past five games have received a majority of spread tickets in 65.9% of regular season games when facing an opponent that has covered one or fewer of their past five.

Oddsmakers understand these tendencies, and shade their lines to force square bettors to take bad numbers as a result.

In postseason play, however, the team with strong recent ATS form receives a majority of bets in only 52.2% of games.

Why the change?