The Michigan State Spartans take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on BTN.
Michigan State is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Penn State prediction and college basketball picks for December 13, 2025.
Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: Penn State Team Total Under
My Michigan State vs Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to go under their team total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs. Penn State Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -112 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -108 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
- Michigan State vs Penn State spread: Michigan State -12.5
- Michigan State vs Penn State over/under: 144.5 points
- Michigan State vs Penn State moneyline: Michigan State -900, Penn State +600
Michigan State vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
This sets up as a quietly brutal offensive spot for Penn State, and the numbers really don’t do it many favors once you zoom in on how Michigan State operates on defense.
On the surface, the Nittany Lions’ offensive efficiency looks solid, but this is one of those matchups where style and opponent strengths matter more than season-long averages.
I think it’s critical to look at how Penn State has performed against decent competition thus far. The Nittany Lions were blown out by Indiana on the road on Tuesday and also struggled against Providence, losing 77-65 last month.
Michigan State’s defense is elite at taking away efficiency at the rim and contesting shots across the board. The Spartans are holding opponents to just a 44.6% effective field goal percentage, which ranks top-20 nationally, and that’s a major issue for a Penn State offense that relies heavily on 2-point scoring.
Michigan State is allowing only 46.0% on 2-point attempts and ranks in the top 20 in block rate, limiting second-chance opportunities and easy buckets at the rim. I have a feeling the Nittany Lions will struggle mightily to score inside.
The tempo angle helps the under as well. Michigan State forces longer defensive possessions, slowing the game and reducing the number of chances the Nittany Lions have to score.
Penn State already plays at a relatively snail pace, so this isn’t a game where it's going to get a ton of extra cracks at the basket.
I don't expect a large amount of 3s, too. Michigan State allows just 28.6% from 3, and Penn State isn’t a high-volume perimeter team to begin with, considering only 25.6% of its points come from beyond the arc, which ranks near the bottom nationally.
If the Nittany Lions aren’t hitting contested jumpers, they’re going to be forced to take tough, contested shots inside that have a low probability of hitting the bottom of the net.
Another aspect that has me fading the Nittany Lions is their foul generation. Penn State typically leans on free throws to boost its scoring, but Michigan State is excellent at defending without fouling, ranking near the top nationally in FTA/FGA allowed.
If Penn State isn’t living at the line, it becomes very difficult for it to keep pace offensively. We may see some late scoring in garbage time, but it won't be enough.
There are a ton of factors working in our favor here. There will be a slower tempo, elite interior defense by Michigan State, limited 3-point shot opportunities and reduced free-throw opportunities.
I think Penn State is wildly overrated by the market and many will get sucked in by its offensive metrics. This is a horrible matchup for the Nittany Lions, and their 40-point loss at Indiana on Tuesday is just the beginning of brutal performances.
Whenever — or if — this becomes available, back the Nittany Lions to go under their team total.
My Pick: Penn State Team Total Under
