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Duke-North Carolina Betting Guide: Expect a High-Scoring Game in Cameron?

Feb 21, 2019 8:15 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zion Williamson and Nassir Little

Duke-North Carolina Betting Odds

  • Odds: Duke -9
  • Total: 164.5
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and win probabilities on your bets


You’ve seen the graphics, year after year. Yet it’s still remarkable. Duke and UNC are separated by almost nothing.

In 179 meetings since 1950, the difference in points scored is 22. Yes, 22. Or an average margin of victory of .12 points.

Wins since 1978

  • Duke 51
  • UNC 49

Last 175 meetings

  • UNC points: 13,337
  • Duke points: 13,335

When both teams are ranked (75 times since 1961)

  • UNC points: 5,874
  • Duke points: 5,874

There’s more separating Duke and UNC this season, given the point spread, but should be an electric game with plenty of scoring. Let’s dive in.

Market Moves for Duke-UNC

Duke opened at -9.5 at most sportsbooks and has fallen just half a point. A few books opened as high as -11, but that was quickly bet down.

The total has seen more drastic movement. It opened as high as 169 and is down to 163.5 in some spots. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

Does home court advantage give Duke an edge against North Carolina? Since 2005, Duke is 18-22-1 ATS at home when facing a ranked opponent, including 4-8 ATS when playing the Tar Heels. — John Ewing

North Carolina enters its showdown against Duke, 8-1 against the spread (88.9%) on the road this season, the most profitable road team ATS in the country, covering the spread by 9.8 points per game.

Since 2005, Duke is 9-1 straight up and 6-2-2 against the spread when playing a team at home in February or later that has covered at least 75% of its road games. — Evan Abrams

The Stakes

With a season sweep of Virginia already in hand, a win for Duke tonight would go a long way in locking up the ACC regular season and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

It would be hard to envision Duke not ending up with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in any scenario, but a win tonight would seemingly guarantee Coach K gets one of those four coveted spots.

On the other hand, if UNC can pull off the upset, it will move into first place in the ACC (same record as Duke, but 1-0 head-to-head). The talk nationally would take a momentous shift toward the Tar Heels and how good they really are and if they are worthy of a No. 1 seed.

If you are thinking they can pull off a stunner, maybe look to throw a few shekels on a national title future in addition to the moneyline tonight in anticipation of a drop in the futures market. — Stuckey

When UNC Has the Ball

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