Anyone else still on Cloud 9 after that Virginia-Purdue game last night?
Condolences if you had Purdue +4.5 or Boilermaker futures. We'll be talking about that one for a long time.
For the moment, though, let's turn our attention to Sunday's Elite 8 games — Kentucky vs. Auburn and Duke vs. Michigan State.
Here's how I'm betting both contests.
#2 Kentucky vs. #5 Auburn: NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Kentucky -4.5
- Over/Under: 141
- Location: Kansas City, Mo.
- Date: Sunday, March 31
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
The under is 7-2 in Kentucky games in the month of March, including 3-0 so far in the tournament.
I think you have to go back to the well with another Kentucky under here. Historically, Elite 8 games have played very slow compared to the rest of the tourney, sans the national title, as teams get a little tighter with a trip to the Final Four on the line.
This is where the experience differential could favor Auburn. Kentucky is the third-youngest team in the country, while Auburn has a roster with top 40 experience.
But I really like this under for a few big reasons.
I think we are getting a few extra points of value in the market due to recency bias after everyone saw what Auburn did against UNC in the Sweet 16. However, the loss of Okeke will slow down Auburn considerably in transition.
Also, not only is Kentucky excellent across the board on defense, it’s played slower since the start of SEC play — and the market just hasn’t caught up. Kentucky unders are 17-5 during the Wildcats’ past 22 games, including 3-0 in the NCAA Tournament.
You have to imagine that 3-point-reliant Auburn will be chucking once again, especially with the loss of Okeke. And while Kentucky has struggled with its perimeter defense at times, most of those issues came early in the season.
The Cats have allowed teams to shoot 34.5% on the season from 3 (180th in the nation) but improved significantly during conference play (32.5%).
These teams are very familiar with each other as this will be the third meeting of the year, which I think will benefit both defenses.
The Pick: Under 141
#1 Duke vs. #2 Michigan State: NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Duke -2
- Over/Under: 151
- Location: Washington D.C.
- Date: Sunday, March 31
- Time: 5:05 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Something is just off with Duke of late. This just isn't the same team that we saw earlier in the year with a full roster. Nobody really looks ready for the moment outside of Zion Williamson, and the shooting woes appear to be in the Blue Devils' head.
Meanwhile, everyone has continued to disrespect this Sparty team, myself included, but they keep proving the market wrong.
There’s a reason why MSU has absolutely dominated against the spread. I have been frantically adjusting Michigan State up in my power ratings and Duke down.
I think Sparty is worth a play at anything over +2. We all know Duke will win by a point when Michigan State misses a layup at the buzzer.
The Pick: Michigan State +2.5 or better (shop for the best number, as there are a few +2.5s out there at the time of publication)
