The UConn Huskies take on the Providence Friars in Providence, Rhode Island. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
UConn is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -525. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my UConn vs. Providence prediction and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
UConn vs. Providence Odds, Spread, Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
My Pick: UConn -11 or Better
My UConn vs Providence best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs Providence NCAAB Betting Preview
UConn Basketball
UConn was expected to be in the top tier of the Big East this season, battling with a group of contenders.
After the Huskies' performance against a tough non-conference schedule, UConn now stands clear as the favorite to win the conference, with early projections slotting Danny Hurley and his club as a one seed in March.
DraftKings now lists UConn at -425 to win the Big East title, a noticeable shift thanks to the Huskies' play. Wins over Illinois, BYU, Texas and at Kansas stand out as impressive early victories. UConn's lone loss came at the hands of the nation's top-ranked team, the Arizona Wildcats.
Hurley has his team performing on both ends of the floor, yet its the UConn defense that's worthy of real praise. Teams are shooting just 37% from the field against UConn, fifth-worst in college hoops. Outside the arc, teams have made just 25.5% of their attempted 3s when facing the Huskies.
Some analytics diehards will chalk some of that up to luck, with regression to come, but it's impossible to ignore how effective the Huskies have been at forcing tough shots and making non-shooters more involved for opposing offenses.
If this team has an issue, it's sending opponents to the free-throw line. That's been a problem for Hurley's Huskies, who have boasted several top-ranked defenses with mediocre or downright bad free throw rates allowed.
It's a trade-off for the kind of intense man-to-man defense Hurley expects on the perimeter, which has clearly paid off so far this season.
Providence Basketball
Entering this past weekend, Providence had yet to make waves this season.
The Friars had eight wins without a loss when facing teams outside KenPom's top 100 and six losses to teams inside that top 100 in six tries. Providence won the easy games and lost the tough ones, plain and simple, until Saturday.
After trailing St. John's by 10 points on the road with just under eight minutes to play, the Friars stormed back and earned a much-needed signature win.
The key contributor in that game was 20-year old Estonian freshman Stefan Vaaks, who made the critical plays down the stretch to put the Friars in front. Vaaks has started just eight of Providence's 14 games, but he's yet to fail to score in double figures in a game this season.
He has a great feel for the game and a nose for the rim. Providence scores 1.33 points per possession in transition and 1.36 points per possession on pick-and-roll actions with Vaaks on the floor, but those numbers drop to 1.06 in transition and 1.16 on pick-and-rolls when Vaaks sits, per Hoop-Explorer.
The issue with Vaaks comes on defense. Providence's defensive rating is 100.0 without Vaaks, but it's just 114.3 with him on the floor, a major shift.
Kim English's team's success this season hinges on his ability to access Vaaks' offensive talents while minimizing his defensive liability.
UConn vs. Providence Betting Analysis
This is a classic letdown pick after Providence's big win at St. John's. The Friars return home to keep things rolling, only to face one of the nation's best teams and find themselves outmatched.
If I'm aware of those numbers about Vaaks' defensive limitations, Hurley is certainly aware of them and will constantly put pressure on the freshman wing when the Huskies have the ball.
Providence used to have some home court magic, going 36-22 ATS (.621) as a home 'dog since 2010, winning 27 of those games outright.
It hasn't been the same under English or call me crazy, since the building changed names in 2023. In that span, Providence is just 19-22 at home ATS.
It certainly hasn't been a problem for Hurley and the Huskies, who have won their last two trips to Providence by double figures.
My Pick: UConn -11 or Better
