NCAA Tournament Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 4 Favorite Bets for Sunday’s Elite Eight Games

Another day, another loss for a No. 1 seed.

With Gonzaga out of the NCAA Tournament, Duke will try to avoid the same fate against a Michigan State team that's looked dominant in the last two rounds. On the other side of the bracket, Auburn brings its red-hot shooting into an Elite Eight matchup with Kentucky.

Our staff has been hard at work breaking down the small card, and delivered their favorite bets between the two games.

Sunday NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Stuckey: Kentucky-Auburn Under 141

I think you have to go back to the well with a Kentucky under here. Historically, Elite Eight games have played very slow compared to the rest of the tourney, sans the national title, as teams get a little tighter with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

So I really like this under for a few big reasons.

I think we are getting a few extra points of value in the market due to recency bias after everyone saw what Auburn did against UNC in the Sweet 16. However, the loss of Chuma Okeke will slow down Auburn considerably in transition.

Also, not only is Kentucky excellent across the board on defense, it’s played slower since the start of SEC play — and the market just hasn’t caught up. Kentucky unders are 17-5 during the Wildcats’ past 22 games, including 3-0 in the NCAA Tournament.

You have to imagine that 3-point-reliant Auburn will be chucking once again, especially with the loss of Okeke. And while Kentucky has struggled with its perimeter defense at times, most of those issues came early in the season.

The Cats have allowed teams to shoot 34.5% on the season from 3 (180th in the nation) but improved significantly during conference play (32.5%).

These teams are very familiar with each other as this will be the third meeting of the year, which I think will benefit both defenses.

Mike Randle: Kentucky -4.5 vs. Auburn

The loss of Okeke severely limits the Tigers, who are not strong defensively in the half-court. He is also the Tigers leading rebounder. This is a massive loss against a Kentucky team that ranks fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.

Auburn produces 43.8% of their points via the 3-point, ranking eighth most in the country. While Kentucky ranks 180th overall in defending the 3-point shot, that is skewed heavily towards the first half of the season. In SEC conference play, the Wildcats only allowed opponents to shoot 32.3% from deep.

The two teams played twice this season, with the Wildcats winning both games. Kentucky won at Auburn 82-80 on Jan. 19, in a game it led comfortably until a frenetic finish by the Tigers. On Feb. 23, the Wildcats blew out the Tigers 80-53 at home.

Kentucky has a massive advantage inside and Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson will have little trouble getting open shots. Auburn has played incredibly well during its 11-game winning streak, but injury limitations combined with Kentucky’s massive size advantage will lead to a comfortable Wildcats win.

Eli Hershkovich: Michigan State +2.5 vs. Duke

I get the narrative. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is 11-1 all-time vs. Michigan State's Tom Izzo. But the Spartans present plenty of mismatches at both ends, beginning on defense.

The Blue Devils operate their attack inside the arc while they’re in their half-court sets, tallying the 22nd-highest 2-point scoring rate in the nation. But the Spartans are yielding the second-lowest 2-point clip, guided by Xavier Tillman, Nick Ward and Kenny Goins’ elite rim protection.

Tillman’s physicality matches up well against the 6-foot-8 Zion Williamson, and Michigan State wing Matt McQuaid should limit R.J. Barrett’s prowess for attacking off the dribble as well.

Duke will need to hit its perimeter shots to pull this one off, and the 25th-lowest 3-point clip (30.7%) in Division I won’t be enough. Banking on another Tre Jones-like performance (5-of-7 shooting from 3) is asking for a lot.

The Spartans should dominate inside the arc at the other end, with the Blue Devils yielding the 22nd-highest 2-point scoring rate in the country. Expect MSU point guard Cassius Winston to slice them up in the pick-and-roll, which they’ve struggled to defend throughout the big dance.

Tillman and Ward should control the paint, too, opening up their 21st-ranked 3-point attack (38.2%).

Collin Wilson: Duke -2 vs. Michigan State

When I first posted a bracket two weeks ago, fading Duke was a big part of it. Central Florida and Virginia Tech had every chance to send the Blue Devils home, but Coach K and Zion continue to find a way to survive and advance.

As Eli mentioned above, betting on Duke is essentially putting a double down on its 3-point shooting. A 6-for-20 effort against the Hokies was led by Tre Jones going 5-for-7 from behind the arc. Duke’s 3-point shooting was bound to regress in a positive way for the Blue Devils at some point, and a 30% night is signs of that correction.

Michigan State is decent in perimeter defense, but an opponent 2-point percentage rank of second in the nation is where the Spartans excel. Zion Williamson has been too much to handle in the paint for every team, continually getting his opponent's best big in foul trouble.

Michigan State’s current depth will be become even more of an issue if Xavier Tillman gets into foul trouble. The Spartans worked with a 7-man rotation against LSU with Nick Ward and Gabe Brown getting 16 minutes a piece. Ward is probable with a hand injury, but any foul trouble or future injuries to this Spartans lineup could be the end of their season.

The big narrative will be Coack K’s 11-1 record against Tom Izzo, or the fact that Duke has covered four of the last five games against the Spartans.

I am banking on Duke to have a plus performance from beyond the arc while Zion Williamson give Sparty’s depth issues with foul trouble. Take the Blue Devils to cover and advance to the Final Four.