Virginia-Purdue Bad Beat: Cavaliers Pull Out Miracle Cover in Overtime

Virginia-Purdue Bad Beat: Cavaliers Pull Out Miracle Cover in Overtime article feature image
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Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Virginia celebration

  • Virginia closed as 4.5-point favorites against Purdue in Saturday night's Elite Eight game.
  • The Boilermakers had a 97.95% chance to cover with 17 seconds left in regulation, but Virginia hit a buzzer-beater to force overtime and then needed a string of late free throws to cover the spread in miracle fashion.

When you look back at the Virginia-Purdue boxscore one day, you won’t understand a thing. You especially won’t understand how the Cavaliers covered as 4.5-point favorite.

UVA pulled out an 80-75 win to advance to the Final Four after tying the game as time expired in regulation. It needed a Carsen Edwards miss and turnover, and four straight free throws, to cover in overtime.

According to the win probability metric in The Action Network app, Purdue had a 97.95% chance to cover with 17 seconds left in regulation.

With 4 minutes left in the second half and through almost all of overtime, the Boilermakers had at least a 70% chance to cover +4.5.

But overtime did them in. Virginia trailed 75-74 with 27 seconds left in OT, then took the lead on a D’Andre Hunter layup. Purdue’s Edwards — who scored 42 points — missed a 3, and Kyle Guy made a pair of free throws with 6 seconds after that.

Edwards then threw an errant pass with Purdue down 78-75 and Virginia got the ball back with just under 2 seconds left, then hit both free throws to win 80-75.

According to our Bet Labs data, NCAA Tournament underdogs of 4.5 points or more are 29-6-2 (82.9%) ATS in OT over the last 20 years. St. Joe’s, back in 2014, was last team +4.5 or higher not to cover in OT in the tourney.

Betting tickets on the game were split almost exactly 50-50 (Purdue 51%, Virginia 49%), with 61% of the money on the Cavaliers.

Virginia improved to 2-2 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, but its two ATS wins have come by a combined one point.

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