Stuckey, Wilson, Randle and Eli: Saturday’s College Hoops Moneyline Parlay

Stuckey, Wilson, Randle and Eli: Saturday’s College Hoops Moneyline Parlay article feature image

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston guard Dejon Jarreau

  • As we do each week on the podcast, the four of us come up with our favorite moneyline parlay piece for Saturday's card.
  • Double-digit favorites are not eligible, so everyone must select either an underdog or single-digit favorite.
  • This week, our four-team parlay includes one underdog and three favorites — and pays +633.

We were one game away last week from a perfect 2-0 start for the People’s Parlay, but nobody ever claimed these four-team moneyline parlays are easy.

For those who tuned into the latest episode of The Action Network Colleges podcast, you already know what four teams we have selected for this Saturday. For those who didn’t and for those just  looking for a little more insight, we each detailed the reasoning behind our selections.

Just as a reminder: All teams are fair game except for double-digit favorites.

Let’s start things off with the game of the day between Kentucky and Tennessee at 2 p.m. ET on CBS. This week’s four-team moneyline parlay pays +633.

YTD: 1-1 +6.75 units

>> All odds as of Saturday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time CBB odds and win probabilities on your bets.

Wilson: Kentucky +130

  • Spread: Tennessee -3 vs. Kentucky
  • Over/Under: 141
  • Location: Knoxville, TN
  • Time: 2 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

For the second straight week, I’m taking a small underdog against Tennessee.

Tennessee is one of the best shooting teams in the country, but when that accuracy falls aside teams have been able to expose the Vols down low. Subpar shooting percentages resulted in losses to LSU and Kentucky and a non-cover this week to Ole Miss. The Wildcats will be without Reid Travis, but Nick Richards will keep Kentucky from missing a beat on the boards — especially on the defensive end of the floor.

The Volunteers will need to shoot well at Thompson-Boling to overcome a hot Kentucky team that should refocus after taking a night off against Arkansas this past week. And since I simply don’t trust their shooting right now, I will side with the team that should dominate the glass on both sides in Kentucky.

Too much value to pass up in a coin flip in my book.

Eli: Houston -310

  • Spread: Houston -7.5 vs. UCF
  • Over/Under: 133.5
  • Location: Houston, TX
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

The Cougars (18-8-2) have been a cover machine lately, going 8-2-1 ATS over their past 11 games to tag onto their 27-1 outright mark. One of those victories came at UCF (16-10-1), where they won the rebounding battle 43-34 en route to a cover (-2.5) and nine-point straight-up win.

Houston has manufactured the nation’s 33rd- and 56th-highest offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively. Even with the 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall, the Knights have accrued the AAC’s fifth- and sixth-lowest offensive and defensive rebounding rates in league play. Look for Kelvin Sampson’s crew to own the glass once again and control the pace as a result.

Johnny Dawkins’ squad has also let up the fourth-highest perimeter scoring rate (32.7%) amid their AAC slate. That spells trouble against a Cougars’ offense that sits first (38.0%) in that department. Despite only amassing a 25.9% 3-point clip in Orlando on Feb. 7, Armoni Brooks (40.0%), Dejon Jarreau (39.1%), and Corey Davis Jr. (38.8%) should have a field day from behind the arc.

UCF does have revenge on its mind and is fighting for an outside shot at an at-large bid, which may help it keep this one closer than the line indicates. The Knights can stymie Houston’s ball pressure by getting to the line, which they do on a fairly consistent basis. They have tallied the second-highest free-throw rate (49.0%) in the conference while Houston has yielded the fourth-highest clip (40.9%).

But in the end, the Cougars should extend their dominant home winning streak to 34 consecutive games at Hofheinz Pavilion.

Randle: Georgetown -135

  • Spread: Georgetown -2 vs. Seton Hall
  • Over/Under: 155.5
  • Location: Washington, D.C
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Georgetown is making a surprising push towards the NCAA Tournament after being predicted seventh in the Big East preseason poll.

The Hoyas have been strong on their home court since getting senior Trey Mourning (6.6 ppg) and freshman Mac McClung (13.2 ppg) back from injury. They’ve won three of their past four games at home, including wins over Xavier, Providence and Villanova.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall has lost two games in a row and is only 1-6 in its past seven Big East road games. Leading scorer Myles Powell (21.9 ppg) is only shooting 39.7% (33 of 83) from the field over his past five games, and I think he’s starting to fatigue after being relied on so heavily throughout the season.

A few other nuggets worth noting:

  • Seton Hall ranks last in the Big East with an offensive turnover percentage of 20.4% per game, which is not ideal on the road in conference.
  • Georgetown is third best in conference against the 3-pointer while also shooting a very respectable 37.8% from deep.
  • The Hoyas have broken 80 points in three of their past four home games, while Seton Hall has averaged only 66.3 points over their past four road contests.

Look for senior Jessie Govan (18.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) to lead the Hoyas past the Pirates for a big conference home win in a prime revenge spot.

Stuckey: Kansas State -260

  • Spread: Kansas State -6 vs. Baylor
  • Over/Under: 127
  • Location: Manhattan, KS
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

Much like Collin, I’m picking a team similar to the one I liked last week — a Big 12 home prime-time favorite.

This is a great spot to back a Wildcats team off a disappointing loss to Kansas on Monday. I think the quick turnaround for that game hurt some of the KSU players who have been dealing with nagging injuries. Four days off since that game should serve Bruce Weber’s team well on the health front.

Meanwhile, Baylor might come in with a little fatigue after pulling out a hard-fought win in overtime against Texas on Wednesday night. Also, Makai Mason is simply not healthy right now.

After dropping 40 against TCU, Mason has played in only five of Baylor’s past seven games. In the five he played, he scored a total of 35 points (7.0 ppg) on an abysmal 8-of-56 (14.3%) shooting — including 1-of-17 over his past two games. He’s simply not healthy, and I don’t think Baylor can beat the class of the Big 12 on the road without a fully healthy Mason.

I know I’m going against the Kansas rule that everything possible happens to ensure Kansas wins the Big 12, but I think K State’s home-court advantage can overcome that voodoo. (Since 2005, only four teams have been more profitable to bet on at home than Kansas State.)

Moneyline Parlay Summary

  • Kentucky +130
  • Houston -310
  • Georgetown -135
  • Kansas State -260

Pays: +633

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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