2019 College Football Bowl Projections After Week 3: Fringe Teams Fall

Sep 15, 2019 08:09 AM EDT
Credit:

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gabriel Davis

  • We use our Vegas-style betting power ratings to project which college football teams can get to six wins to gain bowl eligibility.
  • We also project the point spread for each game, including possible College Football Playoff matchups between Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma.

There weren’t any landscape-altering upsets in college football on Saturday, but plenty of teams that figured to be on the fringe of bowl eligibility saw their chances take a hit.

Maryland’s loss to Temple and Kentucky’s blown fourth-quarter lead to Florida were just two of the games that could keep teams out of the postseason when all is said and done.

Below we project every college football bowl game, and the point spreads for those possible matchups.

2019 College Football Bowl Projections, New Year’s Six

I’ve had Boise State as the top Group of Five team for the first few weeks, but after dismantling Stanford, it’s clear UCF is right there. And since the Knights have a head start in the polls, they get the spot.

The Orange Bowl is the trickiest to project — assuming Clemson goes to the playoff, which other ACC team deserves a New Year’s Six spot? Virginia it is, for now.

Notre Dame gets into the meat of its schedule soon, with four ranked opponents coming up in its next five games.

Full 2019 College Football Bowl Projections

We’re still using a lot of what we think we know to make these projections, since so few games have been played. Most teams still have many of their coin-flip games to come after cleaning up against weaker opponents in the first few contests.