The Georgia Southern Eagles take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the 2025 Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama, on Monday, Dec. 29. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Georgia Southern is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. App State, meanwhile, enters as a +8 underdog and is +255 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59.5 total points.
Here’s my Georgia Southern vs. App State prediction and college football picks for Monday, December 29.
Georgia Southern vs App State Prediction
- Georgia Southern vs. App State Pick: App State +7.5 or Better
My App State vs. Georgia Southern best bet is on the Mountaineers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia Southern vs App State Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
- Georgia Southern vs App State Spread: Georgia Southern -8, App State +8
- Georgia Southern vs App State Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- Georgia Southern vs App State Moneyline: Georgia Southern -300, App State +255
Georgia Southern vs App State Birmingham Bowl Preview
Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview: Looking for an Opponent
Could it be that six programs — some of which were power conference ones like Auburn, Florida and UCF — were all afraid to play the vaunted 6-6 Georgia Southern Eagles, led by Clay Helton?
It’s an offense that finished inside the top 50 nationally in Points Per Drive, Pass Success Rate and EPA.
Quarterback JC French threw for over 2,700 yards, and running back OJ Arnold averaged 6.5 yards per carry on 134 attempts. Receiver Camden Brown led the Sun Belt with 14 receiving touchdowns and ranked second with 1,058 yards.
It’s an offense with a bunch of weapons.
But it’s also a defense devoid of any weapons and, after Helton made sweeping changes, barely any full-time staff coaches. Coordinator Brandon Bailey and linebackers coach Alex Garwig were let go the day after the Eagles finished their regular season.
Georgia Southern finished 129th nationally in points per drive allowed, 132nd in Success Rate Allowed, and allowed 30-plus points eight times (40-plus four times).
The Eagles finished among the nation's worst rushing defenses (134th in Success Rate and yards per game allowed).
The front is about as weak as it gets and, despite holding opponents to an average 7.3 yards to go on third downs, allowed a staggering 55.2% Success Rate on those downs, worst in the country.
The defense goes from bad to worse at the end of games.
Even in wins over App State (25-23) and Marshall (24-19), the Eagles found themselves fighting for life, allowing three touchdowns in five opposing fourth-quarter drives in those games combined. The other two failed drives went for 52 and 73 yards, resulting in an interception and a turnover on downs.
In each of its final three wins on the season, Georgia Southern’s opponents possessed the ball in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to take the lead.
And that’s the regular season. Helton is an entirely different animal in bowl games, which we’ll get to below.
In power ratings and overall assessment, Georgia Southern is one of the worst bowl-eligible teams. Only two six-plus-win teams rate out worse (Delaware, Coastal Carolina), followed by both five-win bowl teams (App State, Rice).
Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview: Challenge Accepted
Congratulations to Appalachian State, which, despite finishing 5-7, clinched a spot in the Birmingham Bowl after several programs declined the invitation.
The Mountaineers get a chance to end their season on a high note and avenge a November loss to conference rival Georgia Southern.
The problem is that App State limps into the game.
It dropped five of its last six games after needing just two wins from Week 8 on to become bowl eligible.
To make matters worse, a string of players — including both starting quarterbacks, AJ Swann (started the year QB1) and JJ Kohl (finished the year QB1) — hit the transfer portal. Three additional starters are in the portal, including leading tackler safety DJ Burks.
But head coach Dowell Loggains accepted this bowl bid with enthusiasm.
So, without either starting quarterback from this season, App State is down to a couple of options.
Billy Wiles is a redshirt senior who would play his final collegiate game after stops at Southern Miss and Clemson (he was a starter at Southern Miss).
Noah Gillon is a lanky freshman with minimal experience and just 11 completions on 32 attempts this season. Gillon stands 6-foot-3 and has a big arm.
As a first-year coach, it would make sense for Loggains to roll with Gillon here and survey his ability ahead of the transfer window on Jan. 2.
There’s not much to love about App State.
The offense finished 80th nationally in points per drive and 124th in EPA per pass despite the 10th-most pass-heavy offense (57.6% of plays).
The defense wasn’t much better, finishing 101st in points per drive allowed and 113th in Pass EPA allowed.
Naturally, this team should end up dead to rights like other 5-7 bowl replacements of late, namely 2024 Louisiana Tech (lost 27-6 to Army), 2022 Rice (gave up 300 rushing yards to Frank Gore Jr. in a 38-24 loss to Southern Miss), and 2021 Rutgers (lost 38-10 to Wake Forest).
Right?
After all, Group of Five teams that won five games are 2-6 outright since 2015.
Georgia Southern vs App State Pick, Betting Analysis
As the Sickos Committee preaches, all football is good football. That mantra never holds more true than between these two teams in the Birmingham Bowl.
App State was (at least) seventh in line to accept this bowl bid, and it took (at least) six programs turning down the bid for it to fall to the Mountaineers.
They dropped five of their final six games after a 4-2 start, entering the bowl game on a real low.
On the other side, you have Clay Helton, famous for his bowl follies.
At Georgia Southern, Helton is 0-3 outright in bowls, each loss as an outright favorite. In his career, Helton is 2-6 outright and 0-for his last five against the spread.
Let’s survey those results:
- 2024: -4 vs. Sam Houston, lost 31-26
- 2023: -1.5 vs. Ohio, lost 41-21, and allowed five rushing touchdowns to a running back who has three touchdowns in two years since
- 2022: -5.5 vs. Buffalo, lost 23-21
- 2019: +2 vs. Iowa, lost 49-24
- 2018: +8 vs. Ohio State, lost 24-7
Dismal, to say the least.
In its last matchup, App State made a good run at a win after trailing 22-9 at the end of the third quarter. Swann threw an interception inside the Eagles’ 25-yard line but otherwise led three long drives, two of which ended in touchdowns.
It takes guts to go against four points of movement in favor of Georgia Southern, one of which pushed it through the key figure of seven.
But in a world of uncertainty and unexpected outcomes, there are a few consistencies in college football.
One of those consistencies is Helton’s incompetence in bowl games.
Against a stripped-thin App State roster with nothing to lose, this is a banner letdown spot for Helton & Co.
Secondaries coach Darius Safford will call the defense, and the positions are coached primarily by grad assistants since Helton relieved much of the defensive staff of their duties.
Whether it’s a curtain call for Wiles (who I would trust enough to conduct a defense) or a tryout for Gillon, there’s an opportunity here. Don’t ignore the fact that App State took the opportunity to play in this bowl game – down pieces or not, it’ll bring a solid effort on Monday.
Pick: App State +7.5 or Better
