2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads After Week 2

2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads After Week 2 article feature image

Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: The Oregon Ducks.

And then there was (forty) one. Yep, only 41 bowls this season instead of 42.

That’s because last week I broke the news the Redbox Bowl in San Francisco was canceled, reducing the number of bowls to 41 this season and the number of bowl teams needed to 82. Hey, even Wikipedia recognized my reporting of the Redbox Bowl news.

The Redbox Bowl was supposed to feature teams from the Big Ten and Pac-12, so this is where it gets tricky.

All 41 bowl games already have contractual agreements with specific conferences, so if there are 82 bowl-eligible teams in December, one of two things will happen, sources said.

  1. Either the Big Ten and Pac-12 will bump two smaller Group of Five teams from their contracted bowls
  2. Or the Big Ten and Pac-12 will end up with one fewer bowl tie-in than they began the season with.

So, what happens? It’s too early to predict (money talks) if the Big Ten and Pac-12 (money talks) will each add an additional bowl bid (money talks) to replace the Redbox, but this will get settled (money talks) sometime before December.

Onto this week’s bowl projections. If you hated my bowl projections last week, boy are you in luck this week because there are wholesale changes — especially in the New Year’s Six bowls after the huge upset wins by Oregon over Ohio State and Iowa over Iowa State.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

College Football Betting Power Ratings

2021 College Football Bowl Projections

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia

Action Spread: Alabama -8.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Action Spread: Alabama -10.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia

Action Spread: Georgia -9

New Year's Six Bowls

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -3

Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: UCLA vs. Iowa

Action Spread: Pick'Em

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: Penn State vs. UCF*

Action Spread: Penn State -6.5

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Clemson vs. Ohio State

Action Spread: Clemson -1

Other Bowls

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Mississippi State -4

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Michigan vs. Florida

Action Spread: Florida -4

Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Wisconsin vs. LSU

Action Spread: Wisconsin -6.5

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Fresno State -9.5

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: North Carolina vs. Auburn

Action Spread: North Carolina -2.5

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Miami vs. USC

Action Spread: Miami -3

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Indiana vs. Missouri

Action Spread: Indiana -3.5

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: Pitt vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Ole Miss -4

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Michigan State vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -7.5

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Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: TCU vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: TCU -1

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

Action Spread: Texas -4.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Rutgers vs. NC State

Action Spread: NC State -8.5

Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Virginia vs. Memphis

Action Spread: Virginia -7.5

SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado

Action Spread: Virginia Tech -5.5

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Minnesota vs. Baylor

Action Spread: Minnesota -0.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Army

Action Spread: Appalachian State -6.5

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Arkansas -3.5

Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Boston College vs. Cincinnati

Action Spread: Cincinnati -9

Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Maryland vs. Toledo

Action Spread: Maryland -2.5

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Utah State vs. South Alabama

Action Spread: South Alabama -0.5

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Nevada vs. SMU

Action Spread: Pick'Em

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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Purdue vs. South Carolina

Action Spread: Purdue -8.5

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: West Virginia vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: West Virginia -4

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: UTSA vs. Houston

Action Spread: Houston -4

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Buffalo vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: San Diego State -5

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Tulane

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -5

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana

Action Spread: Louisiana -4.5

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: Stanford vs. Boise State

Action Spread: Boise State -7

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: BYU vs. Western Kentucky

Action Spread: BYU -3

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Troy

Action Spread: Troy -4

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: San Jose State vs. Western Michigan

Action Spread: San Jose State -4

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: Marshall vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -2.5

Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Charlotte vs. Eastern Michigan

Action Spread: Eastern Michigan -4

Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Ball State -9.5

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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